Mississippi St
vs.
Texas A&M
College Football
Free Pick
10/28/17
Neither one of these teams can be considered among the best in the SEC, but both sit with five wins entering this Game and will likely make a semi-decent bowl. In a quiet week for SEC play, this one will take more precedence than usual with the favorite unclear. Mississippi State was a -1.5 point road favorite at Texas A&M as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
When these teams met last year, it was a much different situation. A 3-5 Mississippi State team upset No. 4 ranked Texas A&M. As a 10-point home underdog, the Bulldogs came out on top with the help of quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who ran for 182 yards and two touchdowns. since that loss, the Aggies have not recovered and that remains the case this season.
A&M has three SEC wins, but those came against Arkansas, South Carolina and Florida and none of them were easy. Their best performance was probably the 27-19 loss against Alabama. On the other side, it’s been an up-and-down season for the Bulldogs as their five wins have all been by at least 25 points, while their two losses were each by at least 28 points. All signs point to this one breaking that trend, at least one would assume so.
The Bulldogs will take the same approach as last season when they ran for 365 yards and three touchdowns. Fitzgerald is at the head of that already with nine rushing touchdowns this season on 6.9 yards per carry. His seven interceptions have been the bigger worry and that was the main reason they were clobbered in both of their losses. Running back Aeris Williams will have another large workload after going for 140 in last year’s Game. A&M doesn’t have bad numbers against the run this season, allowing only 135 rushing yards per contest, but that’s mostly due to Schedule. The Aggies were gashed by Alabama for 232 rushing yards, while Florida ran for 242 yards against them last time out.
Playing at home under the lights, Texas A&M will have that advantage, but it remains to be seen how much that will mater. The Aggies are a similarly based run heavy team with three guys having at least 80 rushes this season, including quarterback Kellen Mond. The problem is that Mond, a true freshman, doesn’t provide much through the air, completing just 53.6% of his passes to go with 7 TDs and 4 INTs. That doesn’t work as well as MSU’s attack as none of A&M’s ball carriers average more than 4.8 yards per carry. Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford have been solid, but their numbers have taken a major dive in Conference play.
The question is what Mississippi State’s defense can do as they’ve been all over the place. Holding Kentucky to seven points last week was impressive, but not incredible. They allow just 17.9 points per Game and only 280 yards per contest, but a lot of that has to do with Schedule. This one should go back and forth with the Bulldogs favored because their numbers are better on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games overall, while the Aggies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall. However, the Aggies are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home Games and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 following a bye week.
Our Pick – Miss St -2