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Missouri

vs.

Georgia

College Football

Free Pick

10/14/17

Almost out of nowhere, Georgia has entered the same stratosphere as Alabama this season, racking up huge win after huge win in SEC play. With possibly its easiest game on the conference schedule this week, the Bulldogs were huge -30.5 point home favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Things are a lot different than when these teams met a little more than a year ago. Georgia scraped away with a 28-27 road win that required a late 80-yard touchdown drive. The Bulldogs are a completely different team from that matchup, so not much can be taken from it and that’s a reason the line will only continue to shoot up for the home side.

The Bulldogs have rolled Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt in the last three weeks, all by at least 28 points. The bad thing for Missouri is that they are probably worse than all three of those teams and maybe by a decent margin. The Tigers looked capable of winning at Kentucky last week, but this will be a different animal for a team that lost its previous three games by large margins to teams like South Carolina and Purdue.

The only way Missouri can cover this game will be through quarterback Drew Lock and the offense. Lock has looked good at times, but that mainly includes the win against Missouri State and last week at Kentucky. Outside of that, he’s struggled a ton with five interceptions in three blowouts. It also doesn't help that he’s completing only 52.6% of his passes, a worse rate than he finished with last year. The Tigers will try and get a ground game going between Damarea Crockett and Ish Witter, but that seems unlikely. Those two have good numbers on the season, but not against any decent defenses.

Georgia has one of the best defenses in the nation and is allowing just 2.9 yards per carry on the ground. If Missouri can’t run the ball, it’s going to fall on Lock’s shoulders and that will be a hard thing to bet on.

It’s a similar situation on the other side as Missouri has allowed at least 31 points in every game this season. That should result in yet another dominant performance for the duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, both of whom are averaging at least 6.8 yards per carry. Jake Fromm has taken the quarterback job in stride, but hasn't had to attempt more than 15 passes in the last four games. This game will look a lot like those previous performances with the cover possibly coming down to the fourth quarter and how Georgia performs with some backups.

Then again, this is also one of the worst defenses that Georgia has faced, so there’s a chance the Bulldogs reach 50 points, which would mean Missouri may have to score close to 20. Georgia won 45-14 against Vandy last weekend as the Commodores got a late touchdown after now backup QB Jacob Eason got sacked and fumbled late. It’ll be tough to bet Missouri, but if the line keeps rising, it may become tough to bet Georgia.

The Tigers are just 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. The Bulldogs have covered in their last five conference games, but are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Our Pick - Missouri +30.5

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