North Texas
vs.
Florida Atlantic
Championship Pick
12/2/17
The Conference USA title Game may be one of the more surprising things of the college football season. A year after Florida Atlantic and North Texas combined for five wins in Conference play, the two meet in this Game after dominating C-USA with a combined 15 wins. LAne Kiffin has changed everything for FAU, while Seth Littrell has done the same in his second season at UNT. The Owls were -11 point favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook for the Game at FAU’s stadium.
The first time these teams met (Oct. 21), it wasn’t pretty. FAU scored on its first 11 drives and won easily 69-31. North Texas has a good offense, but not one that’s going to keep up when its opponent is scoring 20 points per quarter. The problem for the Mean Green is that their defense has been bad all season and the only time they stopped someone was against UTEP and Rice, teams with a combined one win. In Games against better competition, the defense was regularly giving up around 40 points, even if the UAB, ODU and Army Games ended in wins.
That’s a glaring issue because FAU has scored on every Conference opponent this season. While Jason Driskel has been revived, it’s the running Game that’s led to a lot of FAU’s success. Devin Singletary has been unstoppable out of the backfield with 1,630 yards and a ridiculous 26 touchdowns. The Owls ran for 447 yards as a team in that first Game and there’s a decent chance that happens again because North Texas already gives up over 200 rushing yards per Game. And even with that happening in the first matchup, Driskel still tossed for 357 yards.
North Texas not only has to show up defensively, the offense has to do a lot more. SCoring 50 points is attainable for the group, but it won’t come easy. The Owls give up just eight yards less per Game than North Texas (406 to 414), but they’re also allowing only eight points less per Game. The Mean Green have the players to Scorebig, it’s just about putting it all together.
Mason Fine has taken a huge leap in his sophomore season, throwing for 27 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He’s a reason this team has turned it around, but it’ll be important for him to not turn it over in this Game after tossing two picks last meeting. But in order to keep FAU’s offense off the field, North Texas will need to get its ground Game going with Nic Smith as top running back Jeffery Wilson has an injured foot and is likely out for this one. Smith ran for 178 yards last week, but this Game will be a bit different for the freshman running back. Also of note, top receiver Jalen Guyton (who didn’t have a catch in the first Game) is questionable with a concussion.
If North Texas can’t move the ball consistently or hold onto it, the result could go similar to the first one unless its defense has miraculously improved in the past week.
The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Conference play. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home and 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall. The home team has covered in the last Four meetings between these schools.
Our Pick – Florida Atlantic -11