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Ole Miss

vs.

Alabama

College Football

Free Pick

9/30/17

Ole Miss has been competitive with Alabama the last few games from last year’s 48-43 loss to the Rebels winning the two meetings before that. But with a new quarterback and coming off a loss at Cal two weeks ago, there’s little hope for Ole Miss in this game, especially in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide were early -27.5 point favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

In last year’s game, Ole Miss gave everything, but still couldn't escape with a win. The problem was that Alabama ran all over them en route to 334 rushing yards on seven yards per carry. If that happens again, this one probably won’t be as close since Chad Kelly is no longer quarterback for the Rebs. He threw for 421 yards in that game and they’ll need a similar effort from Shea Patterson in this one.

This issue is that Ole Miss still can’t run the ball and are at just 2.8 yards per carry (sacks included) through the first three games. That’s not going to cut it against one of the best defenses in the nation that just destroyed an undefeated Vanderbilt team last week. Patterson has thrown for 1,281 yards, but none of those defenses are considered good and he also threw three picks in the loss to Cal in which the Rebels scored just 16 points. Patterson has a number of weapons in A.J. Brown, DeMarkus Lodge and D.K. Metcalf, but they’ll need to play their best game in this one.

On the other side, there’s no reason to believe Ole Miss can stop anything Alabama does. The Tide just ran through what was thought to be a decent defense in Vandy last week. They finished with a ridiculous 496 rushing yards on 7.5 yards per carry and that same thing can happen again. Jalen Hurts hasn't needed to throw the ball much and he won’t need to in this one. Hurts leads the team in rushing with 360 yards, while Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough and Najee Harris have split most of the carries in the first month of the season.

There’s a path for Ole Miss covering and it’s the same way it happened last year. The Rebels need Patterson to be on his game and match what Kelly did last year when he threw for 400-plus yards and a few touchdowns. Without that, the Rebels will be dead in the water because there’s little to suggest that they’ll be able to run in this game.

The spread is large, but if things go the way as expected, this could be the same result as the Vandy game. If this offense can only score 16 points at Cal, then what will happen in this game? Ole Miss backers are hoping that the team’s recent success in this matchup will show up here because there’s really nothing else to bank on. The Tide should reach at least 40 points again through a dominant ground game with 20 points the goal for the Rebs if they want to cover.

Our Pick - Despite Bama being the obvious superior team here, still  have a problem laying 4 TD's in a series that has been so competitive the last  few years. Don't expect Ole Miss to just roll over. Ole Miss +28

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