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Packers

vs.

Bears

Week 10

NFL Pick

11/12/17

By: Jason Green


Green Bay Packers (4-4 SU 3-5 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-5 SU 5-3 ATS)

The Packers have lost three in a row and they have really missed Aaron Rodgers. Backup Brett Hundley has struggled since taking over under center he has not been helped much by the defense that has given up 26 and 30 points respectively in his two starts. Green Bay really needs a win in this NFC North match up, as they are two games back of the Minnesota Vikings in the division.

In the first match-up between these teams this season in Green Bay with Rodgers at the helm the Packers soundly beat the Bears 35-14.

At 5 dimes sportsbook this game has the Bears as the 5-point favorite with a total of 38.

The Bears had their two-game win streak snapped in their last game and they are favored against the Packers for the first time in nine years. Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky has been decent since taking over as the starting signal caller, but the Bears are still leaning heavily on the run. Chicago ranks a legit 6th in the league in rushing yards per game and their D is pretty good, but they rank dead last in passing yards per game and only 27th scoring an average of 16.8 ppg.

The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games facing the Bears and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games facing them in the Windy City.

In their last game the Packers lost to the Detroit Lions 30-17 where they were out-gained 417 yards to 311 yards and the game was not as close as the score with Green Bay scoring 14 of their 17 points in the 4th quarter. Hundley passed for 245 yards without a TD or INT and four players had at least 32 receiving yards. Hundley not only did not get much help from the D, but from the run game as well with the Packers only rushing for 78 yards with Ty Montgomery being the leading rusher with only 33 yards. Green Bay has to run the ball better to help out their inexperienced QB out and if they are down early it could spell trouble.

Chicago ranks 11th in the league in pass defense and 13th in run defense and even in the loss in their last game their defense was not bad against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

The Bears fell to the Saints 20-12 in their last game where, again, their D was not bad, but they only had 307 yards of offense. Chicago is bringing in Trubisky slowly not giving him many pass plays and in the Saints loss he passed for 164 yards with no TD and a pick. Jordan Howard rushed for 102 yards averaging 4.4 yards per carry and he will be key in this game with a rookie QB under center and he has cracked the 100-yard barrier in two of the last three games.

One key match-up in this game will be Howard facing a Green Bay run defense that only ranks 3rd in the league.

The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and in their last 7 road games the Over record is 6-1.

The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight up loss, and in their last 4 home games the Under record is 4-0.

Jason’s Pick: The Bears are coming off a bye and have covered in their last four home games, but that trend will not continue. Yeah, the Pack miss Rodgers and they were beaten badly in their last game, but in their last two games their D has struggled and they have faced the QB’s of Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. This time around facing rookie Trubisky their secondary will not get torched and while they may not win, as the Bears will have success running the ball, they will, at least, cover the spread.

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