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Green Bay Packers

vs.

Atlanta Falcons

Week 2

NFL Pick

9/1717

By Jason Green

What a Sunday night primetime game in a rematch of last season’s NFC title game. The Packers got off to a solid start to the season beating the Seattle Seahawks where they were not the usual team we are used to seeing winning the game with their defense. Green Bay held Seattle to only nine points in the game and while they only scored 17 Aaron Rodgers passed for over 300 yards. 

The Falcons are -3  point favs at betonline and 5 dimes with a total of 54.

 

The Falcons were supposed to cruise in their season opener facing the Chicago Bears, but the Monsters From the Midway gave them a game only losing by six points. They had to come back in the game needing a long bomb TD in the 4th quarter in a game where reigning MVP Matt Ryan was solid, but did not get much help from the run game.

In last season’s NFC title game in Atlanta the Falcons sent the Pacers packing beating them 44-21 and it was the 2nd time they beat them in the season with both games in Atlanta.

The Packers beat the Seattle Seahawks 17-9 in their first game of the season with Rodgers passing for 311 yards with a TD and a pick. He was sacked four times, but found time to get to his main targets of Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, who combined for 164 receiving yards. Ty Montgomery is the main RB for the Packers and a converted WR and in the Seattle game he did have 54 rushing yards, but only managed to average 2.8 yards per carry. He will face an Atlanta run D that gave up 125 rushing yards to the Bears.

The Falcons beat the Bears 23-17 in their first game where Matt Ryan passed for 321 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT. Austin Hooper led the squad with 128 receiving yards with 88 coming on a long bomb TD in the 4th quarter and star Julio Jones had 66 receiving yards with only four catches. The Falcons only rushed for 64 yards in the game with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combining for 53 of those yards.

The Packers played well against the pass in the win over Seattle and they have to do the same and forget about the conference title game last season when Ryan lit them up to the tune of 392 passing yards and 4 TD with no INT.

Key Betting Trends

The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September, and in their last 4 road games the Over record is 4-0.

The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, and in their last 11 home games the Over record is 11-0.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these teams.

The Underdog is8-3 ATS in their last 11 games between these teams. 

Jason’s Pick: The Falcons are killer at home on their turf with all the weapons Ryan has. Still, I think the Packers are the pick in this game. They will step up on D again and unlike last seasons conference title game this game will be close. Green Bay may not get the W, but they will cover the spread.

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