Patriots
vs.
Raiders
Week 11
NFL Pick
11/19/17
By: Jason Green
New England Patriots (7-2 SU 5-4 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-5 SU 3-5-1 ATS)
The Patriots are en fuego winning five in a row and it is the same old song and dance for the Super Bowl champions. After the AFC East was close for a while New England now has a firm grasp on the division and Tom Brady is putting up MVP numbers. The Pats throttled the Broncos in their last Game and their defense, which really struggled at the beginning of the season, has not given up more than 17 points in their five-Game win streak.
This Game will be held way down south at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites with a total of 53.5.
The Raiders have been a disappointment this season being 4-5, but they have won two of their last three Games. They are in the wide-open AFC race, but still trail the Kansas City Chiefs, who they beat this season, by two Games in the AFC West. Oakland does not rank in the top 15 in the league in ppg or points allowed and the D has to step up in this Game facing Brady and company.
The favorite has covered the spread in Four of the last five Games between these teams.
In their last Game the Patriots were in the Mile High City and laid a 41-16 beat down on the Denver Broncos. Looking at the stats you would think the Game would be close, as Brady did not have a huge Game, the Pats were only 4/11 on 3rd downs, and they rushed for fewer yards. However, Denver had two turnovers and New England had none and the Patriots outscored the Broncos 27-9 in the first half. Brady passed for 266 yards and had 3 TD and 0 INT Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks each had 74 receiving yards. New England rushed for less than 100 yards and Dion Lewis was the lead RB with 55 yards while only averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
In their win over the Broncos Denver simply could not stop the Pats when it counted and if Oakland cannot do that New England will be rolling to their 6th straight W.
The Raiders are coming off a 27-24 win over the Miami Dolphins where Derek Carr passed for 300 yards. Oakland was out-gained by 16 yards in the Game and they did not run the ball well and had two turnovers, but Carr came up big time. He helped Oakland go 8/15 on 3rd down conversions and he was only sacked once with Jared Cook leading the way with 126 receiving yards. Marshawn Lynch had a pretty good Game with 57 rushing yards averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 2 TD, but he has to really play well in this Game not only to move the chains, but to keep that guy Brady off the field.
The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Games against a team with a losing record, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Games, and in their last 5 Games the Under record is 4-1.
The Raiders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Games against a team with a winning record, and in their last 5 Games they have an Over record of 4-1.
Jason’s Pick: This Game is in Mexico and it can be in Oakland, Antarctica, or Croatia and the Raiders still have no chance. Brady is Brady and he will have a good Game again and the New England D will keep Carr and company in check. Sorry fans in Mexico this will not be a great Game, as like their last one the Pats will dominate easily beating the Raiders and covering the spread.