Pinstripe Bowl
Boston College
vs.
Iowa
12/27/17
Iowa has looked like a top-25 team a number of times this season, but due to inconsistency, finished with a 7-5 record and an invite to the Pinstripe Bowl. Boston College’s season wasn’t much different, making this matchup harder to predict between two similar teams. In early December, the Hawkeyes were -2.5 point favorites (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) for the Game at Yankee Stadium.
In other years, this Game may have turned into a defensive snooze fest, but in 2017 that’s not the case. While the Hawkeyes have some terrible offensive performances, they’ve also dropped 44 points on Iowa State, 55 on Ohio State and 56 on Nebraska. They’ve had their ups and downs, which make them hard to bet on, but they’ve shown enough to be an offense that can score.
But it’s still somewhat surprising that Boston College isn’t the team that’s favored in this Game. The Eagles really came around with wins in five of their final six Games, blowing out Four of those opponents, Florida State included. All five of their losses came against teams that are headed to a bowl and with winning records. Iowa can almost say that, but its worst loss was against Purdue, which finished 6-6.
ACCording to team efficiencies at ESPN, Boston College and Iowa are almost the same team with BC at 19, two spots ahead of Iowa because of better special teams. The Eagles had to turn to quarterback Darius Wade in the final two Games because regular starter Anthony Brown went down with a knee injury. Still, the recent success of BC’s offense can be attributed to an improved running Game between AJ Dillon and Jon Hilliman. After a slow start to the season, those two have come around to combine for 2,054 yards and 18 touchdowns.
While Iowa has allowed only nine rushing touchdowns this season, it still has been mediocre in rush defense, giving up 4.1 yards per carry and 140 rushing yards per Game. against the last team that only wanted to run the ball against them, Iowa gave up 247 rushing yards to Wisconsin. But the other side of the field is likely why Iowa is favored. While Iowa’s offense had some issues, it still had huge Games against a few good opponents.
Quarterback Nathan Stanley is the biggest question even though his numbers (25 TDs, 6 INTs) say otherwise. He’s been mostly a Game manager completing 56 percent of his passes for less than seven yards per attempt. The Hawkeyes are going to run as much as possible behind Akrum Wadley (1,021 yards, 9 TDs) and James Butler and there’s a decent chance that works. The Eagles allowed 5.0 yards per carry and close to 200 rushing yards per Game this season.
But for Boston College backers, their improvement late in the year can’t go unnoticed. In the 35-3 win against FSU, the run defense was huge, stopping the Seminoles to 64 yards on 2.2 yards per carry. If that same run defense shows up here, BC gets the edge. Another helpful stat is that Boston College was actually better on the road with a 5-1 record (which led to a 8-3-1 ATS overall mark), while Iowa was 2-3.
The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl Games, while the Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl Games, although are also 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine Games overall.
Our Pick – Boston College +2.5