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Ravens

vs.

Jaguars

Week 3

NFL Pick

9/24/17 

By: Jason Green

 The Ravens have gotten off to a 2-0 start to the season where they have only allowed 10 points. They have not played any good teams yet in wins of the Bengals and the Browns and that continues facing the Jags in the Sunshine State this Sunday afternoon. While Baltimore is the betting favorite they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Jaguars. 

Well, the Jags won their first game of the season in impressive fashion, but then lost their last game where they gave up 37 points. Their D was not good in their last game, but they did have three sacks and have registered 11 on the season. However, the big question is can they move the ball on the Ravens’ defense?

These teams met last season in Jacksonville where the Ravens beat the Jaguars 19-17.

The Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns 24-10 in their last game where they had fewer yards (386 to 337), but they forced five turnovers and committed two. Joe Flacco was decent in the game going 25 for 34 for 217 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and Benjamin Watson   was the main target with 91 receiving yards. Baltimore rushed for 136 yards in the game with Javorius Allen and Alex Collins combining for 198 rushing yards.

The Ravens may look to run the ball more in this game facing a Jacksonville run defense that gave up 179 yards in their last game.

In their last game the Jaguars lost to the Tennessee Titans 37-16. The game was close at half with Jax only down 6-3, but they were outscored 31-13 in the 2nd half. They did not play good run defense and they turned the ball over three times while only forcing one turnover.

After a pretty good first game Jags’ QB Blake Bortles got back to his normal self with a sub-par effort in the loss to Tennessee and while he passed for 223 yards and a TD he was also picked off twice and was sacked twice. WR’s Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee combined for 158 receiving yards, but the Jags only rushed for 99 yards with rookie RB Leonard Fournette really struggling leading the team with 40 yards and only averaging 2.9 yards per carry. It has been proven that when Bortles has to do it all with no run game the Jags lose and Fournette has to have a good game on the ground. Still, while the Ravens only gave up 10 points in their win over the Browns they did give up 300 yards in the air.

Key Betting Trends

The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC, and in their last 13 games after an ATS win they have an Under record of 10-3.

The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games in September, and in their last 5 games after a loss they have an Over record of 4-1.

Jason’s Pick: Not really sold on the Ravens even after an 0-2 starts, but have to go with them since the Jags are the Jags. The Baltimore defense will play well in this game holding Jacksonville’s offense in check and while Flacco and company will not light up the scoreboard they will win and cover in jolly old England this Sunday.

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