Ravens
vs.
Packers
Week 11
NFL Pick
11/19/17
By: Jason Green
Baltimore Ravens (4-5 SU 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-4 SU 4-5 ATS)
This is a non-Conference match-up between a couple of teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Ravens have lost three of their last Four Games and they may have to rely on the Wild Card for the post-season since the Steelers are at 7-2 in the AFC North. Baltimore does have a top 10 defense, but their offense has been less than dynamic and they rank dead last in the league in passing yards per Game.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Ravens are 1-point favorites with a total of 38.
The Packers snapped their three-Game losing streak with a win in their last Game, but still have a lot of work to catch the 7-2 Vikings in the NFC North. Brett Hundley has not been impressive in taking over for the injured Aaron Rodgers, but Green Bay won their last Game and one of the main reasons was their run defense. That run D will be key in this Game since the Ravens have a legit run Game while the same cannot be said about their aerial “attack.”
These teams have not met since the 2013 season.
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five Games between these teams.
In their last Game the Ravens lost to the Tennessee Titans They had more overall yards, had more rushing yards, and held Tennessee to only 3/11 on 3rd down conversions. However, they committed two turnovers and only had six points after three quarters before scoring 14 in the 4th. Joe FlACCo has taken his knocks this season and while he passed for 261 yards with 2 TD and he ACCounted for both turnovers with 2 INT. Jeremy MAClin led the team with 98 receiving yards and it has not been all FlACCo’s fault, as he has a less than stellar WR corps. Alex Collins rushed for 43 yards and only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. He rushed for 113 yards in the previous Game and look for Baltimore to lean heavily on him.
Green Bay ranks 17th in the league in pass D and 20th in run D and the latter will be the unit that has to step up in this Game.
The Packers beat the Chicago Bears in their last Game 23-17 where they did not commit a turnover and they were pretty solid on 3rd downs. They only had 19 more yards, but they stuffed the run, which was key since that is the strength of the Chicago offense. Brett Hundley passed for 212 yards with a TD and one important factor was that he was not picked off for the 2nd straight Game. Green Bay had the WR corps and they need to run the ball in this Game like they did in the Chicago Game with 160 rushing yards with Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery combining for 212 of the Packers 160 yards on the ground. They will look to do that since the Ravens’ weakness on D is against the run where they only rank 28th in the league.
The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road Games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Games after a bye week, and they have an Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 Games.
The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Games against a team with a losing record, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Games after a straight up win, and in their last 7 Games against a team with a losing record they have an Over record of 7-0.
Jason’s Pick: The Packers played well against the run last week and rank the ball well and that is what they will do in this Game as well. Hundley will not be asked to do much and that will be key in the Packers win where they will move to 6-4 and keep pressure on the Vikings, who have a tough Game against the Rams.