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Saints

vs.

Bills

Week 10

NFL Pick

11/12/17

By: Jason Green


New Orleans Saints (6-2 SU 6-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills  (5-3 SU 5-2-1 ATS)

This non-conference game features two of the more surprising teams this season, the Saints are red-hot, as they have won six in a row after dropping their first two games of the season. For a change their defense has been pretty solid on the season ranking tied for 9th in points against and in their last two games they have only given up 10 points and 12 points respectively. However, what has not changed is the legit offense led by Drew Brees, who leads the league’s 4th ranked passing attack.

At 5 dimes sportsbook the Saints are 2.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5.    

The Bills are one game back of the New England Patriots in the AFC East, but they were not sharp in losing their last game to the New York Jets. On offense they are le3d by their run game and overall their defense is the strength of the team and while they rank tied for 5th in points against they gave up 34 points in their last game.

These teams have not met since the 2013 season in New Orleans where the Saints beat the Bills 35-17.

The Saints won their 6th in a row beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-10 in their last game. They more than doubled up on the Bucs outgaining them 407 yards to 200 yards and they had a balanced offensive attack. Brees passed for 263 yards with 2 TD and no INT and his line did a good job only giving up one sack. Four different players had at least 46 receiving yards and the RB duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 145 rushing yards and each averaged at least 4.8 yards per carry.

Brees had been picked off twice in each of his previous two games before not having one in the win over Tampa Bay. While Buffalo ranks a solid 8th in the league defending the run they only rank 26th defending the pass, which may hurt big time with Brees in town.

The Bills had their two-game win streak snapped in their last game losing to the New York Jets 34-21. The Bills only had 24 fewer yards in the game, but they had three turnovers while they did not force any. The run game was key in the game with the Bills only rushing for 63 yards while the Jets rushed for 194 yards. Tyrod Taylor was 29/40 for 285 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT with Deonte Thompson leading the way with 81 receiving yards. Taylor was also the leading rusher in the game with only 35 yards while RB LeSean McCoy struggled, big time, with 25 yards on the ground averaging a weak 2.1 yards per carry with 13 of the yards coming on one run.

The Saints only rank 19th in the league in run defense, but if they can keep Taylor and McCoy in check they should win this game.

Buffalo cannot get down in this game like in the loss to the Jets where they were down 34-7 in the 4th quarter before two late TD’s. Taylor is a legit QB, but cannot carry the team with his arm and if they get down and have to go to the air they are really behind the 8-ball.

The Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall, and in their last 5 games the Under record is 4-1.

The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and in their last 17 home games the Over record is 14-3.

Jason’s Pick:
The Bills will play better than they did in the bad loss to the Jets last week, but the result will still be the same. They will not be able to stop Brees and while this game will be pretty close since Buffalo will run the ball well New Orleans will win and cover for their 7th straight W.

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