Saints
vs.
Dolphins
Week 4
NFL Pick
10/1/17
By: Jason Green
New Orleans Saints (1-2 SU 1-2 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-1 SU 1-1 ATS)
The Saints are coming off their first win of the season and it was an impressive one beating the Carolina Panthers 34-13 on the road. Their defense did not play well in the first two Games, but did in their last Game and they face a Miami team that only scored six points in their last Game. Drew Brees is still getting it done under center and after three Games he has the 4th most passing yards in the NFL.
This Game is being held a neutral site in London, England.
At 5 dimes sportsbook the Saints are 2.5-point favorites with a total of 49.5
After a solid win in their season opener the Dolphins laid an egg in their last Game losing badly to the New York Jets, who many see as the worst team in the league. Miami really struggled on offense in the loss to the Jets and they only had a grand total of 30 rushing yards.
These teams have not met since the 2013 season in New Orleans where the Saints beat the Dolphins 38-17.
The Saints beat the Panthers 34-13 in their last Game where they had 362 yards and they held Carolina to only 288 yards. New Orleans forced three turnovers in the Game and did not commit any and they jumped out to a 17-6 halftime lead. Brees was a legit 22 for 29 for 220 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT and Michael Thomas led the squad with 87 receiving yards with a TD. New Orleans rushed for 149 yards in the win with Mark Ingram rushing for 56 yards and Adrian Peterson having his best Game for the Saints so far rushing for 33 yards, but only averaging 3.7 yards per rush.
It is no secret that to stop the Saints on offense you have to stop Brees and he will face a Miami pass rush that had two sacks in their last Game.
The Dolphins lost to the Jets in their last Game 20-6 where they were shut out through three quarters before scoring six points in the 4th quarter. They only had 225 yards in the Game and they had two turnovers only forcing one. Jay Cutler was 26 for 44 for 220 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and three different players had at least 48 receiving yards. Cutler got no help from the run Game with only 30 yards on the ground and he had nine of them. Jay Ajayi was the lead rusher for 16 yards averaging a less than stellar 1.5 yards per carry.
It would help if Cutler can get some yards from his RB’s, but look for him to air it out often facing a New Orleans pass defense that only ranks 30th in the league.
The Saints are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Games overall, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Games following a ATS win, and in their last 6 Games they have an Over record of 6-0.
The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Games following a ATS loss, and in their last 13 Games they have an Over record of 9-4.
In the last 5 Games between these teams the Over record is 4-1.
Jason’s Pick: The Saints don’t have a good defense, but that unit was pretty good in their win over Carolina. They will not shut down the Dolphins, as Cutler will have a good Game, but Brees will have a better one lighting up the Miami secondary. In Jolly Old England take the Saints to win and cover, as they will even their record at 2-2.