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Saints

vs.

Panthers

Week 3

NFL Pick

9/24/17 

By: Jason Green

The Saints have lost their first two games of the season and they defense has struggled giving up 29 points and 36 points respectively. On the other side of the coin Drew Brees has not really hit his stride with his new receivers and New Orleans has scored 39 points combined in their first two games. They split their season series with the Panthers last season winning at home, but losing on the road and they have covered the spread in their last four games facing them. 

The Panthers are a perfect 2-0 and while their only scored nine points in their last game they held the Jaguars to three points. Carolina’s defense has been great so far this season not allowing a TD yet and only giving up three points in each of their last two games. However, that was facing the 49ers and Bills, who do not have a good offense while the Saints have Brees, who can light it up at any time.

The Saints are a 6-point road underdog at 5 dimes sportsbook and in the last five games between these two NFC South rivals the underdog has covered the spread every time.

In their last game the Saints lost to the New England Patriots 36-20. Brees had a big game, but New Orleans did not have a good game running the ball and they allowed the Pats to rack up 555 total yards.

In the New England loss Brees passed for 356 yards with two TD and he was not picked off with Michael Thomas and Brandon Coleman each having at least 82 receiving yards. In the game the Saints went down 20-3 after the first quarter, so they have to air it out and rely on Brees for the comeback, which, obviously, never happened. The Saints only had 81 rushing yards, but Mark Ingram did rush for 52 yards on eight carries with 28 yards coming on one scamper.

Adrian Peterson only has 44 rushing yards after two games and can he and Ingram run the ball on a Carolina run D that only gave up 69 rushing yards in their last game? If they cannot Brees will have to do it all, yet again, and that has not gotten New Orleans good results.

The Panthers beat the Buffalo Bills 9-3 in their last game where they held Buffalo to only 176 total yards and 10 first downs. Carolina needed a big game on D, as they only had 255 total yards including 77 rushing yards. Cam Newton passed for 228 yards in the game with no TD and no INT, but lead rusher Jonathan Stewart only rushed for 40 yards averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry. The team was very high on 1st round pick Christian McCaffrey, but after two games he only has 57 yards and nine catches for 72 yards.

There is a good chance the Panthers will have a better offensive game then they did last week since they will be facing a New Orleans’ defense that ranks dead last in the NFL after two games.

Key Betting Trends

The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC, and in their last 5 games they have an Over record of 5-0.

The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss, and in their last 6 games they have an Under record of 5-0-1.

Jason’s Pick: This game is all about offense against defense and I have to take the defense and the Panthers in this one. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games facing the Panthers, but that trend will not continue in this game. Brees will have a good game,, but New Orleans will be able to run the ball and their D will get torched. Carolina will move to 3-0 on the season with a home win and they will also cover the spread.

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