TCU
vs
Iowa State
College Football
Free Pick
10/28/17
No one projected this to be an important Game in the middle of the Big 12 season, but here we are. TCU sits atop the Conference standings with Iowa State only one Game behind. The Horned Frogs were just -7 point road favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
While TCU being ranked at No. 4 is a big surprise, Iowa State coming into this Game ranked in the top 25 may be a bigger one. The Cyclones, annually a lock to finish near the bottom of the standings, have won their last three Conference Games with two of them coming on the road in impressive fashion (at Oklahoma, at Texas Tech). Their only two losses were respectable against Iowa (44-41) and in a weekday Game against Texas (17-7). In yet another spot to pull off a huge upset, Iowa State has become another pain to face in the Big 12 Schedule.
Still, the undefeated Horned Frogs can’t be overlooked, having a competent offense to go with what is statistically the best defense in the conference. These teams were in a much different spot early in 2016 when they last met with TCU winning 41-20. Both have improved in almost every area and that could make this one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend.
TCU’s defense has returned to elite levels, allowing just 14.9 points per Game and 80.7 rushing yards per contest. The Horned Frogs have been dominant in recent wins holding K State and KU to a combined six points. Iowa State’s offense has come out of nowhere in recent weeks with the help of Kyle Kempt, who has seven touchdowns and only one pick in his three starts. This will be by far his hardest task after coming over from a community college just two years ago.
If the Cyclones can’t run the ball, which is a real possibility, then Kempt will be asked to win this or keep it close at a minimum. Running back David Montgomery is averaging a pedestrian 4.9 yards per carry and that may not be enough against this defense. If the Cyclones have trouble scoring, covering this Game will fall to the defensive side.
While ISU is only allowing 20.4 points per Game, this is still a hard group to trust given the team’s history. Not to mention, it was only two months ago that they gave up 44 points to Iowa. But in recent Games, the Cyclones kept Oklahoma somewhat in check (31 points) and then most recently stopped a high-flying Texas Tech to 13 points.
The Horned Frogs don’t have the best offense in the conference, but they’ve been consistent and haven’t turned the ball over. That starts with quarterback Kenny Hill, who has played it safe this season, completing 70.2 percent of his passes to go with only three picks after tossing 13 a year ago. That’s made all the difference for this team while Kyle Hicks and Darius Anderson churn out yards on the ground.
Finally a ranked team, Iowa State actually has some pressure on them to show up in a big spot, which hasn’t been the case in a long time. As only seven-point underdogs, the Cyclones will be a difficult team to back. The Horned Frogs have covered in their last five road Games, but are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 on grass. The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home.
Our Pick – Iowa St +6.5