TCU
vs.
Oklahoma
Big 12
Championship Pick
12/2/17
The problem with some Conference championship Game is that the teams just played each other and that’s the case for the Big 12. Only three weeks ago, Oklahoma controlled TCU in a 38-20 win, but that also came at home for the Sooners. With this one in Arlington at AT&T Stadium, the Sooners were -7.5 point favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Everything is lining up for Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff as long as it wins here. But while the Sooners easily won that first Game, beating a team twice in one month is never easy. This is still a TCU defense that ranks as the best in the Conference and has solid numbers across the board, namely giving up just 2.7 yards per carry and 90 rushing yards per Game. That didn’t show up in the first contest with Oklahoma running for 200 yards, but if the Horned Frogs can cut that total, they’ll be in business.
The problem is that things should be just as difficult as last Game with Baker Mayfield having his eye on the Heisman. Mayfield didn’t start last Game, but still added to his stats and now has 4,097 yards to go with 37 touchdowns and only five interceptions. No one has stopped him and that includes the first meeting between these teams when he tossed for 333 yards and three touchdowns with multiple completions over 40 yards. Rodney Anderson did whatever he wanted in that first Game, running for 151 yards to go with 139 receiving. TCU has great numbers against everyone in the Big 12 except for this Oklahoma offense and there’s nothing that suggests the Sooners won’t have their way yet again.
Oklahoma still has a weak defense, but that wasn’t a factor in the first Game because TCU lacks explosiveness with Kenny Hill at quarterback. Hill’s been serviceable this season, but was one of the reasons TCU wasn’t competitive in the first meeting as he completed just 13-of-28 passes. If that happens again, the Frogs will have trouble keeping this Game close. The other way TCU has a shot is if its running Game starts out strong and moves the ball consistently. The Sooners are actually decent against the run giving up just 4.0 yards per carry and that was a reason the Frogs couldn’t get anything going the first time.
Between Hill, Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks, someone will have to breakout for TCU to have a shot in this Game. But if the TCU defense gets exploited in the first half again, none of that will matter. The Sooners exploded for 38 points in the first two quarters in that last meeting and that was the Game. Sure, TCU didn’t allow a point the rest of the way, but it’s hard to bet on that fact alone.
The Horned Frogs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at a neutral site and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 1-7 ATS in their last eight at a neutral site. The under has hit in six of the last eight meetings between these schools.
Our Pick – TCU +7