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TCU

vs.

Oklahoma

College Football

Free Pick

11/11/17

It took some time, but Oklahoma is back in the driver’s seat of the Big 12 and should be headed to the inaugural championship game as long as it beats TCU. The Horned Frogs have similar plans, though, and it wouldn't be surprising if these teams met again in the title game. The Sooners were -7.5 point home favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This game could easily go the same as last year’s when both teams scored for fun. Oklahoma went out to a big lead, but TCU scored 22 points in the fourth quarter and made things too close for comfort for the Sooners. Oklahoma won 52-46, but this TCU team is better and more consistent than that one.

Things are a bit different this year with the Horned Frogs having the best defense in the conference, only allowing 70 rushing yards per game. Still, it’s hard to see this group completely locking down Baker Mayfield and company. That said, TCU has allowed just 27 points total in its last four games. The 44-31 win at OK State should be enough motivation for Oklahoma so they don’t get upset, as well. Under the lights in Norman is a good reason the Sooners are favored by a touchdown.

Mayfield is firmly in the Heisman conversation with 28 touchdowns and only five picks to go with a 71.7 completion rate. He’s been able to do whatever he’s wanted in just about every game this season including the Ohio State win. But the big thing for the Sooners will be establishing a ground game between Trey Sermon and Rodney Anderson, who have both been great at times this season. OU ran for 260 yards in this game last year and if it can do something similar, that could be enough. If not, then this could be anyone’s game and that’s mainly because Oklahoma’s defense is still a mess.

The Sooners haven’t stopped many offenses this season, allowing close to 30 points and 413 yards per game. They had some scares mainly because the defense can’t hold down any offense. TCU’s offense isn’t consistent by any means, scoring just 31 points total in the last two games, but against this defense, that could change.

Kenny Hill is having a fine season, but has been asked to play it safer and that’s led to only five interceptions (and 15 TDs) while completing 68 percent of his passes. He threw for 449 yards and five touchdowns in this game last year so there’s no reason he can’t do that again against this defense. The Frogs will still try and get an early ground game going in order to keep Mayfield off the field. Kyle Hicks and Darius Anderson should see a combined 20 rushes at a minimum, and if all goes well possibly 30.

It’s been tricky to take Oklahoma as more than a touchdown favorite all season and that is the case here. While they’ve covered the last two games, going against this defense will be a little different than Texas Tech and OK State.

The Horned Frogs are 5-1 AT in their last six road games, but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win. The Sooners are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games. The road team has covered in four of the last five meetings and TCU is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between them in Oklahoma.

Our Pick - TCU +6.5

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