Tennessee Alabama CFB

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Tennessee

vs.

Alabama

College Football

Free Pick

10/21/17

Yet again, the Third Saturday in October rivalry means little on a national level. While Alabama has dominated per usual this season, Tennessee has faltered and still sits without an SEC win. The Crimson Tide opened as big -34 point favorites at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This matchup isn’t expected to be much different than the last 10 as Alabama has won eight of them by double-digits and a lot of them by 30 or more points. But with this Game, the Volunteers may be even worse than previous seasons with little to show in their 3-3 record. One of those wins was by Four points against lowly UMass and another was a lucky comeback against Georgia Tech. Coming off a 15-9 loss against South Carolina, no one is expecting Tennessee to compete in this Game.

Considering the rivalry, Alabama probably won’t let up in this matchup, which should lead to another dominant win. The Tide have run through competition and are most recently coming off a 41-9 demolishing of Arkansas. It’s more than possible this Game could have a similar result, if not worse.

The Tide shouldn’t have any problems moving the ball in this one, especially with how bad Tennessee’s rush defense has looked, allowing almost 250 yards per Game. Top running back Damien Harris picked up a leg injury last Game, but he looks fine and even if he doesn’t go, Bo SCarbrough and Najee Harris are more than capable to step in and lead the way. Jalen Hurts is also second on the team in rushing with 558 yards and six touchdowns. Once more, Hurts won’t be asked to pass the ball a ton as he’s attempted more than 19 passes just once this season.

While Tennessee’s defense hasn’t been good, maybe the more worrying thing has been the offense with only 26 points in the last three Games. And remember, 17 of those points came against UMass. The Vols went with Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback last week and he didn’t do much, scoring just nine points aginst the Gamecocks. He attempted 18 passes, while finishing with -2 yards on the ground on 17 carries (sacks included). The only path for Tennessee to have success in this Game would be to get running back John Kelly going, but it won’t be easy against one of the best rush defenses in the country. Kelly hasn’t rushed for more than 58 yards in either of the last two Games.

This line is huge, but for good reason. Trying to find a reason to back the Vols in this Game are few and far between, which means most of the money will be on the Tide. Expect another easy win for Alabama, unless they don’t come out ready, which isn’t expected in this matchup. That said, 34 points is still a large margin as seen in last week’s easy 32-point win over Arkansas. Alabama is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Games overall, while the Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games.

Our Pick – Vols +36.5 and UNDER 51

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