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Texans

vs.

Rams

Week 10

NFL Pick

11/12/17

By: Jason Green


Houston Texans (3-5 SU 5-3 ATS) vs. L.A. Rams (6-2 SU 5-3 ATS)

The Texans have lost two in a row and they lost star rookie QB Deshaun Watson, who is done for the season. Tom Savage took over for him and did not play well in the last game like he did at the beginning of the season when Watson took his starting job. Houston has a legit run game and they rank 3rd in the league in ppg, but that was mostly with Watson guiding the ship and the Houston D ranks 3rd to last in the league giving up an average of 26 ppg.

At 5 dimes sportsbook this game has the Rams as the 11.5-point favorite with a total of 46.

The Rams have to be the biggest surprise in the league this season and they have won three in a row and are all alone atop the NFC West. Jared Goff has really turned things around and he leads a balanced offense that ranks 1st in the league in ppg and a respectable 9th in points allowed. L.A. may really need a win in this game, as their upcoming schedule is killer facing the Vikings, Saints, Eagles, and Seahawks in four of their next five games.

These teams have not met since the 2013 season in Houston where the Rams beat the Texans 38-13.

The Texans lost to the Indianapolis Colts 20-14 in their last game where they only had 288 yards and only had 94 rushing yards. Savage was only 19/344 in the game for 219 yards with a TD and 0 INT and DeAndre Hopkins was his main target with 86 receiving yards and he hauled in the TD. Houston had to go to the air in the Indy game with them down early and while Lamar Miller only had 57 yards he averaged a legit 5.7 yards per carry and the team needs to feed him and D'Onta Foreman in this game to take the pressure off Savage.

The Rams’ weakness on D is stopping the run where they only rank 26th in the league and Houston needs to exploit that and pound the ball on the ground in this non-conference contest.

In their last game the Rams blew up beating the New York Giants 51-17. L.A. racked up 473 yards of offense in the game and their D forced three turnovers while they did not have one. Goff had a big day passing for 311 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT and five players had at least 44 receiving yards led by Robert Woods with 70 and he had two TD as well. Todd Gurley rushed for 59 yards with 36 coming on one play, but he did have 45 receiving yards as well.

Houston ranks 20th in the league against the pass and 9th against the run and their D is key in this game, as with Savage under center the more this game is a shootout they less they have a chance to win.

The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight up loss, and in their last 6 games the Over record is 5-1.

The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, and in their last 10 games the Over record is 8-2.

Jason’s Pick: Both of the Rams losses this season have come at home, but they are playing with a ton of confidence while the Texans are not. Savage will struggle and the Texans will not get it done on the ground while the Rams will be successful in a balanced offense attack. L.A. will get it done in their house winning and covering the spread even giving 11.5 points.

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