Texas Am LSU CFB

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Texas A&M

vs.

LSU

College Football

Free Pick

11/25/17

There’s been little buzz about these teams all season (outside of the coaching carrousel) and that’s mostly due to early losses to inferior opponents. But with both already headed for a bowl, there’s still something to play for. The Tigers have looked better since the loss to Troy and are -10.5 point home favorites as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Even with that Troy loss, LSU still ranks in the Top 25, which says it all for this team. since then, the Tigers have turned it around, although had some luck along the way in wins against Florida and Auburn. Still, they’ve won five of their last six with the lone loss being a cover against Alabama. The defense has returned to elite levels, allowing just 34 points in the last three Games. That hasn’t been the case for Texas A&M, although some of that can be attributed to Schedule with its three SEC losses to Alabama, Miss. State and Auburn. There’s actually not much to fault the Aggies for outside of that opening debacle in which they lost to UCLA. This one could turn into a fun Game, not unlike last year’s 54-39 win for LSU.

The most important thing in this Game will be the A&M offense against the LSU defense. Freshman quarterback Nick Starkel has taken over for the Aggies and done a solid job, but most of his positive stats came against New Mexico even if he still led the team to a 31-24 win at Ole Miss last week. The Aggies will lean heavily on Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford in the running Game, but that may not work. Those struggled to get much going at Ole Miss last week and LSU’s defense is much better, allowing 3.9 yards per carry. If that happens, a lot will be put on Starkel’s shoulders in a hostile road Game.

There’s a chance A&M has trouble reaching 20 points and that’s a good reason why this spread is where it’s at. Of course, the LSU offense isn’t top of the line by any means, but has done enough as the season has gone on. Danny Etling has been serviceable under center and most importantly only has two interceptions. That’s simply all that’s asked of him with Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams doing the rest, combining for 1,696 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.

The Aggies are allowing 156 rushing yards per Game, but a decent 4.0 yards per carry and if they can limit those guys a little, that would be the first step in keeping this Game competitive. If not, things could go similar to last year when Guice ran for 285 yards and Four touchdowns. If that happens again, it’d be hard for LSU not to cover because A&M’s offense isn’t good enough to keep up.

The Aggies have covered in their last Four road Games, but are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 November Games. The Tigers have covered in their last five SEC Games. The favorite (LSU) is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools.

Our Pick – Texas A&M +10

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