Akron
vs.
Toledo
MAC Football
Championship Pick
12/2/17
This might not be the greatest matchup in the MAC title Game, but both teams are plenty deserving. Toledo was expected to be here and won six of its Conference Games by double digits, while Akron snuck into the top spot after winning three of its final Four Games, its first East division title since 2005. For the Game in Detroit, the Rockets were heavy -21.5 point favorites early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
These teams met a little over a month ago and it wasn’t close. Toledo was at home, but the result may have been the same either way as it passed for 323 yards and ran for another 303. Akron couldn’t stop the Rockets and its offense did little, garnering just 1.8 yards per carry. This spread is high for a reason and Akron is going to have a hard time keeping the Toledo offense in check. The Zips haven’t allowed a ton of points this season (24.8), but they give up a lot of yards (421) and that’s going to cost them against an experienced Toledo offense.
OUtside of the bad loss at Ohio, the Rockets have been unstoppable in Conference play and even battled against Miami (FL) earlier in the season in a 52-30 loss. Led by senior quarterback Logan Woodside, they’ve been too much for most MAC defenses to handle. Woodside doesn’t have as impressive numbers as a year ago, but still has 24 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He hasn’t been needed as much because the running Game is doing everything else with Terry Swanson (1,139 yards, 12 TDs) and Shakif SeymOur (665 yards, 12 TDs) the best backfield duo in the conference. After what this offense did to Akron in the first meeting, it’s hard to see the Zips stopping them from scoring 30 or even 40 points.
To cover, Akron will need a better offensive effort and that means getting some kind of run Game going. But despite Toledo’s weak link being its rush defense (170 yards allowed per Game), Akron has gotten almost nothing from its rushing attack all season. The Zips average a miserable 3.3 yards per carry as a team with Manny Morgan their top running back at 342 yards. Senior quarterback Thomas Woodson, who started in the first meeting, has been suspended for the last three Games, but will be available in this one according to Terry Bowden.
Freshman quarterback Kato Nelson was great against Ohio, but he was bad against Kent State last time out and is completing less than 50 percent of his passes. Whoever gets the start will need to have a huge Game because that’s where all of Akron’s offense will come from. Toledo led this Game 38-7 going into the Fourth quarter in the first meeting and then let up to make the Scorelook closer than it was. Unless the Zips get their ground Game going, it could be a similar result.
The Zips are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven and 4-1 ATS in their last five at a neutral site. Toledo is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and has also been the favorite in all of them. The Rockets covered as -15 point favorites in the 48-21 win earlier this season.
Our Pick – Akron +21.5