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Washington

vs.

Arizona State

College Football

Free Pick

10/14/17

A matchup against Washington isn’t the cure Arizona State football was hoping for, but that’s what it will get. The Sun Devils were throttled 44-18 in this game last season and are big underdogs again, even at home. The Huskies were up to -17.5 favorites on Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Last year’s game was probably worse than the score suggests as Washington led 30-3 at the end of the third quarter. ASU scored a couple touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make things respectable, but the game was never in doubt for UW. It could be the same result again as these teams aren’t much different. Arizona State is all offense, while Washington is balanced and one of the best teams in the country.

The Sun Devils haven’t been bad up to now, but they haven’t been good and that’s mainly because their defense can’t stop anyone. In their wins, they gave up 31 points to NMSU and then 35 to Oregon. Even on the road, Washington should have free range to move the ball at will behind Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin. Neither of them has quite as lofty numbers as 2016, but Browning is completing eight percent more of his passes and is getting sacked less. As for Gaskin, he was used less early on as he’s still garnering a hefty 6.2 yards per carry. Having scored at least 37 points in the last five games, the Huskies should be in line for 40-plus in this matchup.

The other side is the biggest question for which team will cover this game. ASU has been competitive in every game this year because of a high-flying offense led by quarterback Manny Wilkins. The problem with closing out games lies in the offense’s 3.0 yards per carry. Wilkins can score when behind, but it doesn’t help that the Sun Devils can’t run and that’s exactly what happened against Washington last year. ASU managed 15 rushing yards (sacks included) and Wilkins had two fourth-quarter TD drives to pump up his stats. There’s a decent chance that happens again as the Huskies have allowed just 24 points in the last three games and the Cal offense isn’t much different than the one ASU presents.

Arizona State got a few more points in the spread because it’s a home game, but that may not matter in this matchup. Washington has clear advantages on both sides of the field and that could lead to early domination to go with the cover.

The Huskies have covered in their last five Pac-12 games and are 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The biggest thing for the Sun Devils is that they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and that’s the main reason anyone would take them in this game. Otherwise, the numbers clearly point to Washington controlling both lines of scrimmage and running up the score early unless Wilkins can make some plays. Washington -17.5

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