Washington St Arizona CFB

179
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Washington State

vs.

Arizona

College Football

Free Pick

10/28/17

The teams in the Pac-12 that have a legitimate chance to make the College Football Playoff are waning by the week. USC was recently removed from the list after getting destroyed by Notre Dame. Washington State rebounded last week and still has a slight chance, although that will be decided after the Apple Cup. This one has turned into a surprisingly difficult matchup with the Cougars just -2.5 point road favorites as of Monday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

This matchup has taken an interesting turn in the last month, especially given how this Game went a year ago. Wazzu destroyed Arizona 69-7 in a Game that the Cougars completed 47-of-52 passes in for six touchdowns. That was a long time ago for Rich Rodriguez, as he suddenly has his team winning Games again with the help of Khalil Tate, who has taken the Pac-12 by storm. since Tate was made starter, the Wildcats have run through opposition and won three straight, scoring 45 points or more in all of them. The issue is that they are still giving up tons of points, allowing 44 to Cal, 30 to UCLA and 42 to Colorado.

Just last week, Washington State’s defense held Colorado scoreless. But so far, no one has been able to stop Tate, who has been slightly ridiculous, averaging 13.9 yards per carry for 780 yards. While he’s only started three Games, those are Heisman-like numbers, rushing for 694 of his yards in the last three. So the question is if Washington State can contain Tate at least a little bit. Tate has beat up on some of the worst defenses in the conference, but can he run through the Cougars, which are allowing 18.5 points and 120 rushing yards per Game? Tate has been solid as a passer, completing 72% of his attempts, but his Game is running the ball. He’s actually ran it six more times than passed.

The other end is what the Wazzu backers will point to. The Wildcats still have a bad defense, giving up close to 30 points per Game and more than 250 passing yards per contest. There’s been no reason to believe their pass defense will do anything against LUke Falk, who is still completing 68.7% of his passes after some subpar performances. The Cougars should also find plenty of room on the ground for Jamal Morrow and James Williams, so this Game could be extremely high scoring. Look to last season’s matchup to how easily Wazzu could move the ball. The only difference is that Arizona should also put points on the scoreboard.

Even then, given how close Arizona’s wins have been due to bad defense, it’ll be hard to take the Wildcats here. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games. Despite winning their last three, the Wildcats don’t have any good trends highlighted by a 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games against a team with a winning road record.

Our Pick – Arizona +2.5

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