Washington State
vs.
Washington
College Football
Free Pick
11/25/17
These teams have identical records, but only one can make the Pac-12 title Game and face USC. Only Washington State can take on the Trojans next week due to its win over Stanford. Even with that being the case, the Huskies were -9 point favorites as of Tuesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
This line seems fairly high, but a lot of that can be attributed to Washington’s dominating 45-17 road win last year. Their defense held the Air Raid in check, while the offense did enough to Score28 first-quarter points. However, this season is a bit different. Washington is far from at the same level, already with losses to Arizona State and Stanford, while barely beating Utah last week. This Game is at home for the Huskies, but that didn’t matter when they struggled against the Utes. As for Wazzu, one more win and it could be a great season, even with its losses to Cal and Arizona. It would mark wins over all three of USC, Stanford and Washington, something that is rarely done for the school. But before that, the Cougars need to show up, something that’s rarely been the case in the Apple Cup.
The good news is that Washington’s defense is not at the same level as a year ago, no matter what the numbers say. The Huskies are allowing only 270 yards and 14.5 points per Game, but after giving up 30 points in each of the last two weeks against mediocre offenses, there’s little reason to trust those stats. A lot of it can be attributed to an extremely easy first six Games of the season.
WSU quarterback LUke Falk has been benched multiple times this year, but in his last Apple Cup, will want to go out on a high note. His numbers have taken a dip since competition increased, but still has solid numbers across the board. His three interceptions in the last two Games is the biggest worry because interceptions is what cost this team last year. The Cougars have gone away from the run completely in recent Games and that won’t help in this one. It’d be helpful if either Jamal Morrow or James Williams could get something going between the tackles.
Washington State’s defense has been almost as good as Washington’s, which is why the spread for this Game is interesting. Wazzu allows just 22.9 points per Game, which is incredible considering where this team was at a few years ago. That should come in handy against a Washington offense that has struggled to find consistency.
The Huskies will lean on running back Myles Gaskin (1,090 yards, 15 TDs) as much as possible, but if the Cougs can limit him at all, that would be the first step in keeping this Game competitive. Wazzu allows just 3.8 yards per carry and could prove a tough challenge. Jake Browning has been much worse under center without stud wide out John Ross and that’s seen in his numbers with just 18 touchdowns. But as seen last week, he’s still a guy that can cut loose and have a big Game after tossing for 354 yards in a late win.
While Washington has been the better overall team throughout the years, nothing about its play this season gives reason to believe the Huskies are much better, if at all. The Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven road Games. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home Games and 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The favorite (Washington) is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Our Pick – Washington -10