Wisconsin
vs.
Indiana
College Football
Free Pick
11/4/17
Wisconsin continues to win and comes in this week as the No. 4 team in the AP Poll, yet is still out of the national conversation. No one seems to be giving the Badgers a chance at the College Football Playoff with most all but guaranteeing a loss in the Conference title Game. For this one, the Badgers were -10.5 point road favorites against Indiana early in the week at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
After beating Illinois just 24-10 last week, it’s hard to take this team seriously as a legit contender. The Badgers haven’t faced a ranked opponent yet this season and may not unless Michigan moves into the rankings again before that meeting. They’ve had little competition and as a result are undefeated with close wins against the likes of Purdue and Illinois. While Indiana is 3-5, this one will be far from easy.
The Hoosiers already challenged Ohio State for a half, and almost beat both Michigan and Michigan State. Of course, they also lost at Maryland last week, but at least they know how to stay competitive against teams better than them and that’s a good reason to take them here.
Due to ineffective quarterback play, Wisconsin isn’t blowing many teams out. Alex Hornibrook remains a mess at quarterback with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions and that all comes with leads in every Game. If you continue to throw interceptions while your team is ahead, there are clear issues. That’s why the Badgers will feed Jonathan Taylor and Bradrick Shaw a bunch in this Game. Taylor is already at 1,185 rushing yards on 7.4 yards per carry and should continue that rate.
Indiana’s defense is better than recent seasons, yet is still allowing more than 160 rushing yards per Game and just let Maryland do whatever it wanted last week. Covering this Game for Indiana will require it to move the ball against a good defense. The Badgers are allowing less than 13 points per Game and under 95 rushing yards per contest so that’s not a good start.
Indiana’s offense has also been all over the place due to inconsistent quarterback play. Peyton Ramsey, who took over for Richard LAgow about a month ago, injured his knee against the Terps and his status is up in the air. No matter who starts, it’s going to be tough sledding if they can’t get a ground Game going. With top running back Morgan Ellison out, Cole Gest took over as the top rusher last week and is far from a Game breaker. against better defenses, this offense has struggled, so that could come into play, especially if Wisconsin establishes its run.
With Indiana losing to Maryland and its Fourth-string quarterback last week, most of the early money is coming in on Wisconsin. The Badgers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road Games, while the Hoosiers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home Games. The favorite (Wisconsin) has covered in the last Four meetings and the over is 11-2 in the last 13 Games between these schools.
Our Pick – Indiana +14