Armed Forces Bowl Pick

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Armed Forces

Bowl Pick

Houston

vs.

Army

12/22/18

Similar to a lot of bowl matchups, there are a few changes for each of the teams in the Armed Forces Bowl. Most relevant is that Houston fired its defensive coordinator and will be missing studs on both sides of the ball. Army’s defensive coordinator is in the opposite situation as he was hired by UNC and it was unclear if he’d coach this Game. The Knights were -3.5 point favorites with an over/under of 60 a week before the Game in Fort Worth. As of note, the over/under opened at 67.

Army (6-4-2 ATS) had another incredible year following a 10-3 campaign in 2017 and smashed its season win total by three. It struggled in the opener at Duke, but figured things out afterward and almost upset Oklahoma in a 28-21 loss. Sure, the Knights didn’t have an overly difficult Schedule, but they handled Buffalo, one of the better teams in the MAC, and beat both military schools.

It wasn’t that much different for Houston (6-6 ATS), only that it had a few harder Games and lost three of its last Four. Losses to SMU and Temple showed some underlying issues, but the 49-36 win over Navy also showed it could take on the triple option, which will be key in this Game.

The obvious problem is that Houston still gave up 349 rushing yards to Navy, who was a worse team than Army this season in almost every facet. Without defensive tackle Ed Oliver, it’s hard to see the Houston defense stopping Army given that it allowed 4.2 yards per carry and 197 rushing yards per Game. As a team, the Knights ran for 4.6 yards per carry behind Darnell Woolfolk (885 yards, 14 TDs) and quarterback Kelvin Hopkins (847 yards, 12 TDs). Hopkins also wasn’t terrible as a passer, averaging 10.62 yards on his 90 attempts.

The big thing for Army is that it dominates time of possession and that’s why its defense is often put in a good position en route to only 18 points allowed per Game. The problem is that they’re going to have to match what they did against Oklahoma because Houston plays almost the same way in that every Game is high scoring. If Army can hold onto the ball and keep Houston’s offense off the field, that’s a huge advantage.

It also helps that the Cougars are rolling with Clayton Tune at quarterback who completed just 44.7% of his 85 pass attempts. He’s clearly not the same player as D’Eriq King so it’s a wonder how this offense will look with a few weeks to prepare. It will likely rely on the running Game a little more with Patrick Carr (816 yards, 5 TDs), but King was also a big part of that. At the least, there will be opportunities for Tune to carve up this defense through air or ground because while Army’s defense has good numbers, a lot of that was due to the offense leading the country in time of possession. In the loss to Oklahoma, it still gave up 7.6 yards per carry and 11 yards per pass attempt. If Tune is half as good as King was, the Cougars should put points on the board, but maybe only if they can get their hands on the ball.

The Cougars are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 Games on grass. The Black Knights are 6-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 3-0-1 ATS in their last Four neutral-site Games.

Our Pick – Army -3.5

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