Boca Raton Bowl
Pick
Northern Illinois
vs.
UAB
12/18/18
Betting on midweek bowl Games is always a fun tradition and the Boca Raton Bowl is the first of them. Unlike last year when FAU played in its home stadium, this should be a much closer Game between two Conference winners that pulled off upsets in their respective title Games. The Blazers were slight -2.5 point favorites with an over/under of 43.5 a week before the Game.
After a tough non-Conference slate, Northern Illinois (7-6 ATS) cruised through the MAC until a couple late losses. It still made it to the MAC championship Game and grabbed two late touchdowns to upset Buffalo. The Huskies have a balanced team that was able to keep things somewhat tight with the likes of Utah and Florida State.
UAB (9-4 ATS) had similar struggles in the early season, though a 23-point loss to Coastal Carolina isn’t the same as losing to a Power 5 school. The Blazers eventually figured things out and used a dominant defense in a close win over Middle Tennessee State for the C-USA title. Looking at the numbers, this Game could go extremely similar to UAB’s 27-25 win over MTSU.
Both defenses are near the top of the charts with UAB allowing 17.3 points and NIU allowing 21.5 points per Game. The biggest separator could be the Huskies rush defense, which gave up just 2.7 yards per carry and 110 yards per contest, led by MAC defensive player of the year Sutton Smith (13 sacks).
That’s an issue for UAB because it’s built around running back Spencer Brown (1,149 yards, 16 TDs), who rolled for 156 yards in the C-USA championship. Without that rushing Game, the offense could have some issues because quarterback Tyler Johnston isn’t exactly efficient completing 56.8% of his passes for seven touchdowns and eight picks. At the least, he does provide some mobility that has led to 331 rushing yards and Four more touchdowns. If those guys can’t find room, UAB may have trouble reaching 20 points.
As for UAB’s defense, it’s stout against all phases, allowing just 181 passing yards per Game, but also 3.5 yards per carry. The Huskies run a similar run-focused offense with quarterback Marcus Childers having one of the worst passing rates in the country at 5.42 yards per attempt. Then again, he had to throw more against a good Buffalo pass defense and led the MAC championship victory with 300 yards and Four touchdowns. He’s also important on the ground with 496 rushing yards, which meshes well with running back Tre Harbison (985 yards, 4 TDs).
These offenses are far from exciting, but when needed, both of them got the job done and that’s what matters. The first team to reach 20 points could end up being the winner and if neither rushing attack can get going, it’ll likely be lower scoring. Either way, this one should be close throughout.
The Blazers are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but haven’t covered in their last Four on grass. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but haven’t covered in their last five bowls and are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 on grass.
Our Pick – Northern Illinois +2.5