Cheez-It
Bowl Pick
TCU
vs.
Cal
12/26/18
While the Cheez-It Bowl (played in Phoenix) may lack offensive explosion, it’s set to be close the entire way and that’s the best thing going for it. Cal is in its first bowl since 2015 and first under head coach Justin Wilcox, his second year with the team. TCU is a little familiar with bowl Games under Gary Patterson, winning three of its last Four and nine of the last 12. No matter, this matchup stayed as a pick ‘em a week before the Game with an over/under of 39.5 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Cal (6-5-1 ATS) had a losing record in the Pac-12 and that may be the biggest reason more money is going into TCU. However, after a slow start in Conference play, the Golden Bears figured things out and picked up wins over Washington and at USC, and only lost by seven at Wazzu and 10 to Stanford. TCU (4-8 ATS) was also kind of miserable early in the season and that was highlighted by the loss to Kansas in October. The Horned Frogs turned the corner and won three of their last Four to be in this situation.
TCU is usually known for its defense, but Cal, playing under Wilcox, a former defensive coordinator, may have the better group. The Bears, playing in a weaker conference, gave up just 21.3 points per Game, while the Frogs were at 24.4 ppg. Both teams have solid rush defenses and that’s exactly what both offenses want to do in this Game.
The Frogs are expected to be without their top three rushers as Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua are injured and former quarterback Shawn Robinson is no longer on the team. Sophomore RB Emari Demercado (173 yards) is expected to lead the team in carries, though wide receiver Jalen Reagor will surely get touches and quarterback Grayson Muehlstein had 23 rushes in the final two Games. In fact, the fifth-year senior Muehlstein is getting the start for TCU and that’s the biggest unknown about the offense. He was fine in the final two Games and didn’t throw an interception, but he wasn’t asked to do much against two weaker defenses. Cal’s pass defense has also been elite, giving up just 13 touchdowns with 17 interceptions.
Of course, Cal’s offense also has major issues and got a miserable 5.79 yards per passing attempt, which doesn’t combine well with 4.3 yards per carry. TCU doesn’t have as good of numbers defensively, but some of that has to do with playing in the Big 12 and facing Ohio State in non-conference. At the end of the day, this group is still solid and Cal has had issues scoring more than 14 points against better defenses.
The Bears want to take a run-first approach behind Patrick LAird, who somewhat disappointed with 932 yards and five touchdowns, both worse numbers than a year ago. He only had two 100-yard Games this season and those came only because of long runs. Freshman quarterback Chase Garbers (14 TDs, 7 INTs) still has a long way to go and didn’t get much done against good defenses. At the least, his mobility adds (398 rushing yards) a different element to the offense.
Cal maybe has a little more hope with its group due to a freshman at quarterback, though TCU is playing for its fifth-year senior who is finally getting his moment under center. The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, but 1-5 ATS in their last six on a neutral site. The Horned Frogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine bowl Games and 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Our Pick – Cal pk