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Kansas City Chiefs

vs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Preview and Pick

9/16/18   


By: Jason Green 

  

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0 SU 1-0 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-1 SU 0-1 ATS)

 

The Chiefs were solid in their season opener beating the L.A. Chargers by 10 points on the road. 2nd year Patrick Mahomes looked good at the helm in his first season as the leader of the team after the team let long-time starter Alex Smith walk. KC got great special teams play in their win over LA, but they also gave up a ton of passing yards, which is not good facing Big Ben this Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

The Steelers are coming off a rare tie in their last game with the Cleveland Browns. In OT they had a chance to win and missed a field goal, but they blocked a potential game-winning field goal with only nine seconds left in the extra period. Stud RB Le'Veon Bell remains unsigned on the franchise tag and that has caused some issues in the locker room. It does not look like he will suit up for this game. 

These teams met last season at Kansas City where the Steelers beat the Chiefs 19-13. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Steelers are a 5-point favorite with a total sitting at 52.5. 

Early in the season the Chiefs are 1-0 ATS with an O/U record of 1-0 and the Steelers are 0-1 ATS with an O/U record of 0-1. 

The Steelers are not only 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Chiefs, but the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games between these teams. 

Mahomes passed his first test as the leader of the team with 256 passing yards and 4 TD in the win over the Chargers, WR Tyreek Hill not only caught two of the TD passes and had 169 receiving yards, but also scored on a 91-yard punt return for a TD. Even though the Chiefs won the game they were out-gained by 179 yards and they gave up 418 passing yards. 

The Chiefs pass D has to improve in this game and Kareem Hunt has to run the ball better than he did in the win over the Chargers where he rushed for 49 yards on only 3.1 yards per carry. Mahomes has the weapons and looked good in Week 1, but he needs some help, as team will key their defense to stop him and the passing game.

The Steelers escaped with a tie in their opening game against Cleveland and while they had 145 more yards they had six turnovers and only forced one. Ben Roethlisberger passed for 335 yards, but accounted for three of the turnovers on picks and also lost two fumbles. Bell’s replacement in James Conner had a good game rushing for 135 yards 

Don’t count on Big Ben turning the ball over five times again and the KC pass D, which was torched in their win over L.A., will have to deal with the WR duo of JuJu Smith-Schuster and star Antonio Brown, who combined for 212 receiving yards in the Cleveland game. 

 

Key Betting Trends 


Chiefs 

 ATS in their last 5 games in September 

11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games 

5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall

Over is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 road games

 

Steelers 

1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall

ATS in their last 5 home games

1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss

Over is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 home games

 

Jason’s Pick: Looking at the betting trends you would think the Chiefs are the pick. However, Big Ben will not be a turnover machine like in the last game and he will have a big home game facing a suspect KC pass defense. The Steelers will win and cover and show that Week 1 was a fluke showing they are a legit Super Bowl threat. 

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