Philadelphia Eagles
vs.
New Orleans Saints
NFL Pick
ATS Trends
11/18/2018
By: Jason Green
Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU 3-6 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (8-1 SU 7-2 ATS)
While it is no surprise the Saints are doing well it is a surprise that the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are under .500 after a little more than halfway through the season. They have lost two of their last three Games and they are tied with the Dallas Cowboys at 4-5 two Games back of the Washington Redskins in the NFC East. The defense has not been bad, but the offense has looked nothing like the one last season and they only rank 21st in the league in ppg.
The Saints are the hottest team in the NFL, as they have won eight in a row since losing their season opener. Drew Brees leads an offense that ranks 1st in the league in ppg and they lit up the Cincinnati Bengals in their last Game putting up 51 points. They are a little thin at WR and after newly signed Dez Bryant went down with a season-ending injury the team recently signed Brandon Marshall.
At 5Dimes sportsbook the Saints are an 8.5-point home favorite with a total of 54.5.
This season the Eagles are 3-6 ATS with an O/U record of 4-5 and the Saints are 7-2 ATS with an O/U record of 5-4.
These teams have not met since the 2015 season.
In the last eight Games between these teams the Over record is 6-2.
In their last Game, the Eagles were at home and they lost to division rival Dallas 27-20. While they had 11 more yards than the Cowboys they had the Game’s only turnover and the run killed them. Philly GAve up 171 rushing yards and they only had 71 yards on the ground.
Carson Wentz had a big Game facing Dallas passing for 360 yards with two TD and one INT and TE Zach Ertz was his main target with 145 receiving yards and he hauled in both TD passes. Josh Adams led the team with 47 yards with 29 of them coming on one run.
Wentz has had a pretty good season and has 12 TD and only two picks in his last five Games, but he needs more help. In the two losses in the Eagles last three Games they only totaled 129 rushing yards. Wentz will likely have to carry the load again, as while the Saints only rank 31st in the league in pass defense they rank 1st in run defense.
The Saints were on the road in their last Game crushing the Cincinnati Bengals 51-14. The Game was so bad for CiNCy that they fired their defensive coordinator after the Game. New Orleans outscored the Bengals 35-7 in the firsts half and they racked up 509 yards while only giving up 284 yards.
Brees passed for 265 yards with three TD and no INT and Michael Thomas led Four players with at least 45 receiving yards with 70 receiving yards. Alvin Kamara rushed for 56 yards with two TD and also had Four catches for 46 yards. Brees has to be a MVP candidate and in his last two Games he has five TD and no INT.
The Eagles rank a legit 7th in the league in run defense, even though that unit was torched in the loss to Dallas in their last Game, and only 23rd in pass defense.
Eagles ATS TTrends
2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games
1-4 ATS in their last 5 Games facing teams from the NFC
Over record of 20-6 in their last 26 road Games
Saints ATS Trends
7-0 ATS in their last 7 Games
21-7 ATS in their last 28 Games after a win
Over record of 19-7-1 in their last 27 home Games
Jason’s Pick: Not only have the Saints won eight in a row, but they have covered the spread in their last seven Games. Look for that trend to continue, as Brees and the Saints’ train will not be stopped in this NFC contest, as at home they will win and cover sending the defending champion Eagles to two-Games under .500.