Frisco Bowl
Pick
Ohio
vs.
San Diego State
12/19/18
The inaugural Frisco Bowl was a blowout last year, but that should change in one of the more interesting matchups of the early bowls. San Diego State (3-9 ATS) plays through its defense, while Ohio (8-4 ATS) is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. Because of that offense, the Bobcats were -3 point favorites with an over/under of 54 a week before the Game.
San Diego State never scored more than 31 points, which is a worry going into this Game, not to mention it lost Four of the last five. While some of that can be forgiven due to Schedule, two of those losses were at home against UNLV and Hawai’i. Ohio didn’t win the MAC, but was only a few points off with its two Conference losses coming on the road by a combined five points.
The biggest thing for the Bobcats is their offense, which scored more than 40 points per Game. There has to be some worry in that the one time it played a decent defense, it scored only 21 points at Northern Illinois. Otherwise, the MAC is filtered with mediocre defenses much worse than that of SDSU. The Aztecs may be on a losing streak, but are still one of the best in the country at stopping the run, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry (same as NIU) and 21.8 points per Game.
That’s definitely a worry because the Ohio offense managed just 46 rushing yards on 32 carries (sacks included) in the loss to NIU. The Bobcats have been excellent running the ball all season through A.J. OUellette (1,142 yards, 12 TDs) and Maleek Irons (831 yards, 8 TDs), but also quarterback Nathan ROurke (816 yards, 13 TDs). That’s nice, but SDSU was only beat through the air, which means ROurke will have to shoulder the load. The second-year starting QB has decent numbers with 22 touchdowns and seven picks to go with 8.79 yards per attempt, but a lot of that was built on a stout running Game. When asked to throw more in early losses to Virginia and Cincinnati, he didn’t do enough.
Of course, it doesn’t help that Ohio’s defense isn’t very good, allowing eight yards per pass attempt and 4.3 yards per carry. As of note, Hawaii’s defense is worse than Ohio’s, yet SDSU lost that Game at home and couldn’t get anything from its quarterbacks.
That’s where the Aztecs have had issues this season because as of writing, head coach Rocky Long still didn’t know whether Ryan Agnew (52.3%, 7.66 ypa) or Christian Chapman (57.5%, 8.90 ypa) would get the start at quarterback. Chapman has better passing numbers, but that’s in limited time and he provides less mobility in the pocket. That’s why running back Juwan Washington will be the focus with 870 yards and 10 touchdowns in his only eight Games played. Ohio didn’t allow a ton of rushing yards per Game because it was usually ahead, but the 4.3 ypc allowed tells the bigger story.
The layout is there for SDSU to win the battle on both lines of scrimmage and get an ugly upset. But if that’s the case, you’d be betting a team that’s on a three-Game losing streak going against one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation.
The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and haven’t covered in their last six on grass. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl Games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-Conference Games.
Our Pick – Ohio -3