Gasparilla Bowl
Pick
Marshall
vs.
South Florida
12/20/18
Neither of these teams hit the over on their season win total and that’s why it could be an ugly matchup. South Florida comes in having lost five straight, while Marshall had the same 4-8 ATS mark for the season. The Thundering Herd were -2.5 point favorites with an over/under of 55.5 (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) about a week before the Gasparilla Bowl played in Tampa, where USF plays its home Games.
Marshall didn’t have a bad year, but it only beat one FBS team with a winning record and three of its Four losses came by double digits. It was a similar situation for South Florida because it opened 7-0 mostly due to a favorable Schedule. Once the Games started getting harder, the Bulls faltered and they lost their last five all by double digits.
The big question that needs to be known before betting this Game is the status of USF quarterback Blake Barnett, who is dealing with a shoulder injury and hasn’t looked right since early November. He missed two Games and the one he played in, went just 14-of-23 for 82 yards and two interceptions. If he’s out, the spread will likely move up with Chris Oladokun and Brett Kean expected to fight for time under center and neither has been good. Because of that, the Bulls will lean on running backs Jordan Cronkrite (1,095 yards, 9 TDs) and Johnny Ford (737 yards, 8 TDs) for most of the offensive production and while their numbers look good, they are somewhat juiced up from the easy Games.
It also doesn’t help that Marshall’s run defense has been its strong suit, holding teams to just 2.9 yards per carry and 103 rushing yards per Game. Some of that has to do with Schedule, but this group was still pretty stout in losses. Marshall’s main problem was giving up chunks of yards in the passing Game and even if Barnett plays, his 7.62 yards per attempt may not be enough to capitalize.
The problem for USF is that its defense hasn’t been good, allowing 31.5 points and 244.7 rushing yards per Game (5.0 ypc). Marshall is far from elite offensively, yet has the ability to put up at least 30 points against a bad defense. Top running back Tyler King (655 yards) should be back from injury and if not, Brenden Knox will handle the load after going for 204 yards and a couple touchdowns against Virginia Tech. Freshman quarterback Isaiah Green has done what’s been asked of him and that’s not much with 15 TDs and 10 INTs.
Given USF’s defensive numbers, Marshall will pound the run Game and hope to win both lines of scrimmage. If Barnett is out, the Herd could end up getting the majority of money since it’ll be that much harder for USF to put the ball in the end zone.
The Thundering Herd have covered in their last six bowl Games, but are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulls are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but 1-4 ATS in their last five against the C-USA and they haven’t covered in their last Four at home (Marshall is 1-4 ATS on the road).
Our Pick – Another crappy Bowl Game of which there are far too many.Really not much interest from us in this one from a betting standpoint and quite honestly there may not be much interest from the teams! The weather is been crappy in Tampa, pOuring all day. The field will be soaked. Heck, for South Florida, it’s a home Game. Hardly a reward for a job well done, as a Bowl Game should be.
So, considering the wet conditions, it would seem logical that Marshall will pound the ball against a weak South Florida rush defense. Game over right? Maybe.
Apparantly many bettors feel as though thst’s the way thing will play out as the number has moved to Marshall -4.5 a few hOurs before Game time.
Our model, under perfect conditions, gives South Florida a chance in this one. So, we’ll buck the public in this one and take the added line value with South Florida +4.5.