Kansas
at
Oklahoma
College Football
Pick
11/17/18
Oklahoma still has a shot at the College Football Playoff and a matchup with Kansas won’t derail its hopes. The Sooners escaped against OK State last weekend, but should have an easier time in this one as a -35.5 point home favorite with an over/under of 69 as of Wednesday at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Oklahoma isn’t winning pretty, but as long as it’s winning, that doesn’t matter. The Sooners are headed for a huge matchup at West Virginia in the regular season finale and there’s a good chance they’ll look past this Game, but that probably won’t matter. That said, this isn’t the same Kansas team as in year’s past, already with three wins and actually staying competitive in most Games. In fact, the Jayhawks almost took down K State last weekend and already battled West Virginia on the road, losing just 38-22. On the other side of that, Oklahoma has won the last Four meetings by at least 37 points, though didn’t cover as a 40-point favorite last year.
The Kansas defense has been playing surprisingly solid, giving up no more than 27 points in its last three Games. The problem is that it doesn’t matter against Kyler Murray and the Oklahoma offense, which has scored at least 45 points in its last six Games. No one knows how to stop Lincoln Riley’s offense and Murray has kept that going, completing 70.9% of his passes for 32 touchdowns, five interceptions and 12.30 yards per attempt. Throw in 640 rushing yards along with whatever Trey Sermon and Kennedy Brooks rush for and it’s easy to see why this offense can’t be stopped.
The issue with the Sooners is that they can’t stop anyone. They tried to control the clock by rushing the ball 47 times against OK State, but that still didn’t matter because the defense gave up 501 passing yards and 139 more on the ground.
The Jayhawks don’t have an elite offense, but they could have enough to Scorea few touchdowns and cover the large spread. As of note, Oklahoma has held only one Big 12 team to less than 27 points. KU has gotten decent play out of senior quarterback Peyton Bender, though most important is that he only has two interceptions. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but Steven Sims is a good receiving threat and they are averaging 4.0 yards per carry as a team, which is enough to stay competitive. Running back Pooka Williams leads the attack and while he hasn’t surpassed 4.2 ypc in the last three Games, he’s still finding yards and has 770 for the season. But to cover, Bender will likely have to open things up, similar to every offense that’s faced Oklahoma.
The Jayhawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Games on grass and 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road Games. The Sooners are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home Games, but 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools.
Our Pick – Kansas +36.5 and Over 69