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LSU

vs.

Auburn

College Football

Free Pick

9/15/18

Things are about to get interesting in college football and even more so in the SEC West. LSU travels to Auburn in what is a top-12 matchup according to the AP Poll. Playing at home, the Auburn Tigers are -10 point favorites as seen at 5Dimes Sportsbook

The home team has won the last five games between these schools, which says it all. The last two have been decided by five points or less with LSU winning most recently 27-23. It was a weird game in that Auburn scored the first 20 points and then LSU started doing things and held Auburn to just six points in the second half. Throw in a 75-yard punt return and LSU ended up having the last four scores of the game. It’ll be tough to continue that performance, especially in Auburn.

LSU wasn’t supposed to be that good this year, which is why it’s a 10-point underdog. It got a surprisingly easy win against Miami in the opener and that’s why people are giving them some respect. The problem is that it still looks like the same LSU team. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been mediocre at best in the first two games, most recently completing only 50 percent of his passes against SE Louisiana. He’s at 47.7% for the year and this matchup will only make that worse. 

The issue for LSU’s offense is that it won’t be able to run as easy as it did the first two games. Nick Brossette has looked great, but Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the country with multiple studs headed to the NFL. In last year’s game, LSU got a 70-yard run from Russell Gage, but didn’t do much else as Derrius Guice only managed 3.5 yards per carry. In its opener, Auburn held Washington to just 102 rushing yards and 3.1 yards per carry. That 21-16 win could be similar to this one, but it would require a huge effort from LSU’s defense.

LSU’s defense is the reason why it won this matchup last year as it stepped up after allowing 17 points in the first quarter. In the end, Jarrett Stidham had brutal numbers completing just 9-of-26 passes for 165 yards, while the ground game managed 189 yards on 4.3 ypc. This year, all signs point to an Auburn win unless LSU’s defense can match what Washington’s did in the opener. The pieces are there, but playing at Auburn is never easy and it’s hard to see Stidham having as bad of game considering how he looked against the Huskies, throwing for 273 yards on 72.2% completion. Kam Martin and the running game will be fine, but Stidham runs the offense and if he gets going, LSU will be in trouble.

LSU has covered its last six conference games and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games. The under has hit the last four times these teams met in Auburn and the home team has covered in the last four overall. Auburn has covered in the last four matchups between these teams when played at home, though it wasn’t favored by more than seven points in any of them.

Our Pick - Auburn -10 -115 or less 


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