New Mexico Bowl
Pick
North Texas
vs.
Utah State
12/15/18
The New Mexico Bowl features two teams that lived up to higher expectations this season as both North Texas and Utah State cashed the over with nine and 10 wins, respectively. For the Game in Albuquerque, the Aggies were a -9 point favorite with an over/under of 67.5 as of Dec. 5.
The Mean Green aren’t getting a ton of love mostly because of how they closed the season, failing to cover their last five Games. They looked like one of the best C-USA teams at a time when they won 44-17 at Arkansas, but a few troubling losses is why they didn’t make it to the Conference title Game, the most recent of them being to a Four-win Old Dominion team.
The Aggies had a chance to make the MWC championship Game, but couldn’t upend Boise State in the finale with that being their only loss in addition to the trip to Michigan State. This spread is close to 10 points because eight of their wins came by double digits, led by a dynamic offense. Sure, they had a fairly easy MWC Schedule, but you can’t fault them for that and it’s not like the C-USA is better.
But according to the numbers, these teams aren’t much different since North Texas also had one of the better, more efficient offenses in its conference. Quarterback Mason Fine was excellent with 27 touchdowns and only five picks to go with 8.17 yards per attempt. Four of his interceptions came in the final three Games so he started to slip, but top wide outs Rico Bussey (1,017 yards, 12 TDs) and Jalen Guyton (702 yards, 5 TDs) are still in tow. Maybe better was that the ground Game took off in the final Four Games as DeAndre Torrey rushed for at least 130 yards in that period and finished with 5.9 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns.
Utah State’s defense has been mediocre in almost every area, often doing enough to keep opponents at bay throughout the season while giving up 23 points per Game. At the least, North Texas has the offense to post around 30 points against this group.
On the other end, North Texas isn’t much different, though stopped the run a little better with 113 rushing yards and 21.8 points allowed per Game. That may not matter because similar to Fine at NT, USU quarterback Jordan Love has almost the same numbers with 28 touchdowns, five interceptions and 8.58 yards per attempt. He spreads the ball around a little more with Ron’quavion Tarver his top wide out, but the similarities are striking. The ground Game is more of a one-two punch with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for more than 1,700 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Both teams allow 3.6 yards per carry or less so it’s a wonder if this could end up being a quarterback battle between Fine and Love. And while Utah State has often blown out opponents, North Texas would be one of the harder Games on its Schedule and has the offense to keep up. Also of note, USU head coach Matt Wells, who was hired by Texas Tech, will be involved in practice and the Game plan, but will not coach during the Game. Former assistant and co-defensive coordinator Frank Maile will do the actual coaching.
The Mean Green are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-Conference Games, but again, haven’t covered in their last five. The Aggies have covered in their last Four out of Conference and are 9-3 ATS for the season, but are 4-15 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Our Pick – Utah State will be without head coach Matt Wells who’s leaving for Texas Tech and taking many on his staff with him. That’s never a good thing and always a distraction when preparing for a Bowl Game.
But UL LAff may very well have the same problem. As of this writing, he’s still the UL LAf coach. However there is wide spread speculation that he could replace Bill Snyder at Kansas State.
As of this writing on 12/6, lets consider Utah State the more distracted of the two. With that in mind, we’re going to back a very competitive North Texas Team with an offense that can produce.
With a dead number like +9, it’s always best to wait and see if you can do better. Not much of a big deal if you lose the +9 and end up with +8.5. Though it would be a big deal to get +10. North Texas +9 (shoot for +10)