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Oakland Raiders

vs.

Denver Broncos

Preview and Pick

9/16/18   


By: Jason Green 

  

Oakland Raiders (0-1 SU 0-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (1-0 SU 0-0-1 ATS)

The 2nd Jon Gruden era for the Oakland Raiders did not get off to a good start with a 33-13 loss in the season opener facing the L.A. Rams. They played a sloppy game with three turnovers and they were penalized 11 times for a whopping 155 yards. 

The Broncos got off to a good start with their new QB Case Keenum under center beating the Seattle Seahawks 27-24. Keenum did toss three picks in the game, but came back strong after each one. Their D was pretty good especially their run defense where they held Seattle to only 64 rushing yards. 

Last season these teams split the two games facing each other with each winning at home. 

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Broncos are a 6-point favorite with a total sitting at 46. 

Early in the season the Raiders are 0-1 ATS with an O/U record of 0-1 and the Broncos are 0-0-1 ATS with an O/U record of 1-0. 

The Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games facing the Raiders and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against them. On top of that the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these AFC West rivals and the favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. 

In the 33-13 loss to the Rams in their season opener the Raiders only had 30 fewer overall yards, but the penalties and their three turnovers were costly. While Derek Carr passed for 303 yards he accounted for all of the turnovers with three INT and he did not throw a TD. Jered Cook was his main target with 180 receiving yards, but deep threat Amari Cooper only had one catch for nine yards. Oakland’s run game was not great, as the leading rusher was Marshawn Lynch, who only had 41 rushing yards. 

In the loss to the Rams the Raiders’ defense gave up 395 yards and they allowed 23 points in the 2nd half. 

In their season opener where the Broncos beat the Seahawks they had 470 total yards while holding Seattle to 306 yards. Denver used a balanced attack with 324 passing yards and 146 rushing yards. 

Keenum passed for 329 yards with three TD and three INT and Emmanuel Sanders was the main WR with 10 catches for 135 receiving yards and a TD. After Keenum’s 3rd pick he regrouped and then led the Broncos on a 4th quarter TD drive that lasted seven plays and went 75 yards. That TD gave Denver the 3-point lead, which would stick. 

Denver played the run very well in the win over the Seahawks, but their pass defense is more important in this game facing Carr. Gruden said he hopes to get the aerial attack going in this game with more deep balls to Cooper, so the Broncos better be ready. 

 

Key Betting Trends 


Raiders

1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall

ATS in their last 7 road games

2-7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

Under is 8-0 in Raiders last 8 games overall

 

Broncos 

2-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record

ATS in their last 6 home games

2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall

Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 vs. a team with a losing record

 

Jason’s Pick: Looking at the betting trends above neither team has been a good bet as of late. Dating back to last season the Raiders have not scored more than 17 points in any of their last five games. Still, with that and the head to head betting trends, which point to the Broncos Oakland is the pick in this game. Carr will bounce back and have a solid game after getting picked off three times last week and while the Raiders may not get the win they will cover the spread in the Mile High City. 

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