Stanford
vs.
Oregon
College Football
Pick
9/22/18
Stanford’s been arguably the most impressive team in the Pac-12 this season, though it still hasn’t played on the road. Trips to Oregon and Notre Dame in the next two weeks will determine just how good the Cardinal are. They were getting a lot of the money early in the week and were -2.5 point road favorites as of Monday for the Game at Oregon as seen at YOUWAGER Sportsbook.
Stanford destroyed Oregon at home last year 49-7, but this is a different Oregon team mostly because it has its quarterback back this season. Justin Herbert was injured in that previous meeting so two others had to start and that led to just 33 passing yards with a couple picks. Herbert brings much more to the table already with 12 touchdowns this year, although a 56.8% completion rate and Four interceptions are still a worry. He could have more trouble going forward considering the Ducks haven’t played a viable defense yet and now get a Stanford group that held USC to just three points.
It’s worth noting Oregon actually had 276 rushing yards on 6.4 yards per carry in the meeting last year and that will be how it attacks in this Game. Whether it’s CJ Verdell or Tony Brooks-James, both should see the ball plenty. The Cardinal held USC to 3.1 yards per carry and have allowed just 23 points all season so this could be a true barometer of how good the defense actually is. Oregon’s offense still can’t be considered elite and a non-covering 35-22 win against SJSU last weekend showed that.
The other side of the field should be just as interesting because Oregon’s defense is mostly unknown. It hasn’t showed much allowing 24 points to Bowling Green and 22 to San Jose State, but it’s not like those Games were in the balance. Then there’s the question of whether Stanford’s offense is any good.
The Cardinal are more dynamic with K.J. Costello at quarterback, but he still has some work to do and they took a couple quarters to get going against UC Davis this past weekend. That includes Costello, who had a paltry 214 yards and two picks (and 2 TDs) in the 30-10 win. If Costello can’t consistently complete passes like he did in the opening win against SDSU, Stanford will have a hard time winning the Pac-12. The other worry is Bryce Love, who didn’t play in that Game for undisclosed reasons. If he’s back for this one he could make all the difference after going for 147 yards on 8.6 ypc in last year’s matchup.
The Cardinal probably have the better overall team, but the Ducks are looking to return to relevance and it starts with this Game. Herbert may have the edge at quarterback, while Stanford’s defense is a level above Oregon’s. That should make for a back-and-forth Game that isn’t decided until late.
The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six Games overall, while the Ducks haven’t covered in their last Four home Games and are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight-up win. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these schools in Oregon and it’s 10-3 in the last 13 overall meetings.
Our Pick – Stanford -2