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Titans

vs.

Patriots
 
Division Playoffs

NFL Pick
 
1/13/18
 
By: Jason Green

 
 Tennessee Titans (10-7 SU 9-7-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (13-3 SU 11-5 ATS)
 
 The Titans head to New England to take on the defending champion Patriots where they are big-time betting underdogs. However, all the pressure is on the Pats and in the Titans last game they came back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Kansas City Chiefs and send them packing for the season. Tennessee was not great on either side of the ball this season and the big match-up in this playoff game may be the Patriots and their top-ranked offense facing a Titans’ defense that ranks 17th in the league in points allowed.
 
 At 5 dimes sportsbook the Patriots are a 13-point favorite with a total of 47.
 
 Hey, big surprise the Pats are at home in the playoffs after a bye in the first round. They have won 11 of their last 12 games including their last three, but there have been some issues leading up to this game. There are reports that there is tension between Tom Brady and owner Robert Kraft, but Brady shot down the rumors and said all is great. Two of the Pats losses this season were at home, but this is the playoffs where they rarely lose at home and in betting terms they have covered the spread in six of their last seven home playoff games.
 
 These teams have not met since the 2015 season where the Patriots beat the Titans 33-16.
 
 The Pats are 4-0 ATS in their last four gamers facing the Titans and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games facing them.
 
 The Titans were down 21-3 at the half in their last game facing the Chiefs in KC, but outscored them 19-0 in the 2nd half for the shocking comeback. The Titans out-gained the Chiefs 397 yards to 325 yards coming alive in the 2nd half and they won even though they had two turnovers and did not force one. Marcus Mariota led the comeback with three TD passes in the 2nd half, one to himself, and for the game he passed for 205 yards with 3 TD and an INT and Delanie Walker led the team with 74 receiving yards. Another big reason for the win was the play of Derrick Henry, who shook off recent struggles to rush for 156 yards. DeMarco Murray did not play in the Chiefs game and is listed as day-to-day and Tennessee could really use him in the backfield.
 
 New England only ranks 30th in the league in pass defense and 20th in run defense and their run D will be key in this game. The Titans will try to run the ball to take Brady and the dynamic Pats’ offense off the field and if they cannot run the ball they will be in big trouble.
 
 The Patriots beat the New York Jets 26-6 in their last game outgaining them 330 yards to 247 yards. Brady had another solid game to likely wrap up another MVP season passing for 190 yards with two TD and no INT and he did not play the whole game. Can the Titans stop him and his many weapons? Big question. The more this game is a high scoring one the more likely the Pats will win, as Tennessee has to keep the score down by playing solid D and running the ball well.
 
 While the Titans have a run D that ranks 4th in the league they only rank 25th in pass D, which is not good facing Brady.
 
 The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games, and in their last 7 games they have an Under record of 5-2.
 
 The Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games facing a team with a winning record, 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 home games, and in their last 5 games they have an Under record of 4-1.
 
 Jason’s Pick: Ok, so the Titans are getting 13 points, have no pressure, and are coming off  a huge road comeback win. No matter, Brady will light up the Tennessee defense, New England will defend the run well, and the Patriots will win and cover the spread in what will be a blowout.

 

Bettorsworld Pick - Laying -13 points in an NFL game is just not something we do. We expect the Patriots to win this one and certainly wouldn't be surprised if they do so in blowout fashion, but too many things can go wrong when you lay big numbers.

Instead, we'll go under the total of 47 here. The weather isn't going to be great, with rain expected Friday and Saturday and it looks to us as though the Patriots are going to be doing most of the scoring. Somewhere in n the neighborhood of 28-10 or so sounds about right for this one. UNDER 47

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