West Virginia
at
Oklahoma State
CFB Pick
ATS Trends
11/17/18
While West Virginia is still in the running for the College Football Playoff, Oklahoma State isn’t even a lock to make it to a bowl Game. This matchup looks like another classic Big 12 shootout as long as the favorite doesn’t look ahead to an even bigger matchup next weekend. The Mountaineers were -4.5 point road favorites with an over/under of 71 as of Tuesday at Mybookie Sportsbook.
The Cowboys have lost Four of their last five mostly because their strategy of outscoring the opponent isn’t working. They had a chance to upend Oklahoma last weekend, but couldn’t convert a two-point opportunity in a 48-47 loss. That’s kind of how things have gone for them, also losing 48-42 to Iowa State and 35-31 to Baylor. Of course, it worked against Texas in a 38-35 win and that’s what West Virginia can’t overlook. The Mountaineers already lost at Iowa State 30-14 a month ago and escaped against Texas 42-41 a couple weeks ago. They’ve been better at home, but are always in a battle on the road no matter the opponent and this time they can’t look ahead to the Oklahoma Game.
ACCording to the numbers, WVU has the better defense allowing only 20.9 points per contest, but it’s worth noting it hasn’t looked nearly as good in three road Games, giving up at least 30 points in each of them. That’s where OK State has an edge because this offense shouldn’t have any problems scoring, at least that’s the assumption. This is still the same offense that only scored 17 points against Texas Tech and 12 against K State. Either way, Taylor Cornelius threw for 501 yards and three touchdowns at Oklahoma last weekend and has a solid 8.83 yards per attempt on the season. The Pokes will likely try and get their ground Game going between Justice Hill and Chuba Hubbard because that’s the only way to slow down the WVU offense.
The Cowboys are allowing 31.7 points and 427 yards per Game and that will likely be an issue in this one because they haven’t slowed down any relevant offense. Will Grier and WVU have posted at least 42 points in the last three Games and will likely be around that number again. Grier is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the nation with 31 touchdowns and eight picks on 9.87 yards per attempt. Compared to OK State and receiver Tylan Wallace (1,282 yards), the Mountaineers have much more balance in the receiving core between David Sills, Marcus Simms and Gary Jennings, all with at least 600 receiving yards. It’s the same situation at running back with Kennedy McKoy, Martell Pettaway and Leddie Brown, but they aren’t nearly as lethal as Grier.
When these teams met last year, it was a miserable day for Grier as he threw Four interceptions and OK State won 50-39 on the road. Mason Rudolph threw for only 216 yards, but they also got 246 yards on the ground, while holding WVU to 2.1 yards per carry. In order to win or cover this Game, OK State will need the same kind of performance, forcing turnovers and limiting WVU’s rushing attack.
The Mountaineers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Games overall, while the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a straight-up loss. The under is a surprising 4-1 in the last five meetings between these schools (OK State has won and covered the last three).
West Virginia ATS Trends
West Virginia is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Games as a favorite
West Virginia is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Games overall
West Virginia is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a road favorite
West Virginia is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Games on turf
Oklahoma State ATS Trends
Oklahoma St is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games following a straight up loss
Oklahoma St is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Games as a home underdog
Oklahoma St is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Games following a ATS win
Oklahoma St is 4-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record
Oklahoma St is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Games as an underdog
Oklahoma St is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10
Oklahoma St is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10
Our Pick – West Virginia -4.5