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Weekly Look Ahead – Week 14
The final week of the 2006 college football regular season has some solid games. And there is no game bigger this week than the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta between Florida and Arkansas. Yes, the USC/UCLA game has more BCS implications, however the Trojans aren’t dropping their finale. The game between the Gators and Razorbacks could easily go to either of these two teams.
No. 8 Arkansas (10-2) is coming off a tough loss at home to LSU. No. 4 Florida (11-1) knocked off its rival Florida State in Tallahassee. The winner will further improve their case for a BCS bowl and will likely be headed to the Sugar Bowl. The loser could possible take its biggest fall from grace this year and might not be apart of one of the BCS bowls. One thing is for sure: they’ll some playmakers on the field some Saturday.
Arkansas’s biggest weapon is well known by now. Sophomore running sensation Darren McFadden has rushed for 1485 yards and 14 touchdowns, all this while his backup Felix Jones will likely eclipse over 1,000 yards himself. Florida’s Chris Leak has thrown for over 2,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. Spelling him at times has been freshman stud Tim Tebow who has totaled 11 touchdowns in all this season.
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 4 Florida 12/2 6 pm (CBS)
Line: Florida -2.5
Both teams have been elite throughout the season, however their records against the spread have been anything but. Arkansas is 4-7 ATS while Florida is one game worse at 3-8.
The Hogs come in scoring 30 per contest while the Gators are right there with them at 28. The defenses have been strong in ’06. Florida is allowing 12 while Arkansas is less than 17.
The two haven’t played since 2004 when Florida won in a shootout, 45-30. Florida has won all five meetings and covered each one. Four of the five meetings have gone over 50 total points.
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last five December games. But they are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten games following a SU loss.
Florida is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The favorite has covered four of the last five meetings.
The over has hit seven of the last nine night games for the Hogs. For Florida, the under has hit nine of the last 12 times as a favorite.