BASEBALL BETTING 2008
Baseball is here! Baseball may well be the king of all sports from a betting
standpoint. There are more betting opportunities over the course of a baseball
season than in any other sport people bet on. There is also a wealth of
information available to bettors from which to base their opinions. Baseball is
a statistical handicappers heaven.
Baseball is also probably the most profitable sport for the astute bettor.
Yet, most people lose when trying to bet baseball. Why is that?
There are tons of baseball FANatics out there. Men, Women, Children. They
know their baseball. They can quote batting averages from 50 years ago. They can
manage a game as good as Joe Torre. They know everything about the game. But
when they try and apply their knowledge to making profits betting the game, it
doesn't work.
The average guy will look at a game and break it down comparing pitchers,
comparing offense, maybe even going through a game position by position to see
which team is better and more likely to win a game. But guess what? All of this
work puts this bettor on the favorite 9 out of 10 times. You see, the oddsmakers
have already handicapped this game using the same general principles as the avid
baseball fan. You will never beat baseball betting all favorites.
As a rule, you should probably never lay more than -135 on ANY baseball
proposition. Your wagers should include favorites priced below -135 and more
importantly, an abundance of underdogs as well as totals.
You need to be able to establish your own price on a baseball game. When you
see a baseball price of -150, that number suggests that if this particular game
were played 100 times, or 1000 times, the favorite would win 60% of the time.
Your job as a handicapper is to determine if the math is correct. If you
conclude that the favorite would only win this game around 55% of the time, then
the correct price on the game would be -125. In this scenario you would bet the
underdog and over the LONG haul, would grind out a profit.
The big mystery is how the hell do you make your own price??? There is not
enough space in one article alone to discuss all of the ways to make your own
line on a baseball game. But I will leave you with some food for thought.
The most successful baseball betting group/syndicate that ever existed, beat
the hell out of baseball using their own in house baseball simulation program.
Baseball simulations are not new. They have been around a gazillion years and
started in the form of table top games.
There is an entire sub culture that exits out there, that has nothing to do
with betting baseball. Rather, they are into simulations, and playing imaginary
games between great teams of the past against great teams of the present to see
who would win. They also have leagues where each participant manages a certain
team and calls all the shots. The games themselves are played out using fairly
complex equations which are incredibly accurate. They will match a pitcher
against each guy in the opposing teams line up and have the computer program
perform these complex equations. The end result is the probability of that
particular batter getting a single, double, triple or home run against that
pitcher.
Simulating one game means very little. However, being able to simulate
thousands of the same game and then converting the results into a price on the
game and betting accordingly is the key. This is how the infamous "poker
players" did it and in my opinion, is the way to approach baseball betting.
If you aren't familiar with Bill James, do a Google search on him. That will
point you in the right direction.
I'm certainly not saying that is the only way to beat baseball. There are
some old pros around that make their own lines in other ways and are very
successful baseball bettors. But for today's pc power user, exploring the
simulation method is worth a shot. Plus, you can have some fun along the way.
We've included some baseball betting articles on our home page to get you
primed for the upcoming baseball season. Some are new, some are old. Both old
and new will get your wheels spinning and will get you in gear for baseball.
There are many more articles and old posts in our forums about baseball betting.
Simply go to the forums and
search the oddswiz forum using the search feature
for what you are looking for. There is 10 years worth of helpful info stored
there, enough to keep any baseball bettor busy with research. Also enough to
make any borderline player a winner! Have fun and good luck this baseball
season!!!
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