TODAY'S CARD IS FAVORITE HEAVY

6/18/08

Betting Favorites in Baseball is not something you want to do regularly. Fortunately, we play a very high percentage of underdogs overall. It just so happens that today's card has 4 plays and 3 of them are favorites. They are short prices favorites, with an average price of -120, but don't forget, at -120 you need to win 55% of the time to break even. To put it in perspective, going 2-2 on a card with all underdogs shows you a profit. Going 2-2 on a card with 3 favorites loses money every time unless you have a dog of +150 of better on their that wins.

As for yesterday, having a losing day is no big deal. But having a 1-3 day with all the losses being by one run is a downer, particularly when we had the teams that are on the winning side of one run games more often than not. Such is the baseball betting grind. We're right back at it today to let's get to it.

Phillies -118 over Red Sox - We'll start our Wednesday card with a 1:05 pm est. start as the Phillies and Bosox play the rubber game of their series. Both teams are hot and the Sox are starting to play well on the road but we're looking for the Phillies to bounce back after being shut out for the 4th time this year. In the other three games in which the best offensive team in the NL (tied with cubs) was shut out, the responded with wins in the next game. The Phillies send Kyle Kendrick to the mound and are 10-1 in Kendricks last 11 starts. The Sox go with Justin Masterson who is in off his best start of the season, which often times means the next time out is an average outing. We'll take the Phillies to start off our day.

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Yankees -120 over Padres - Betting on favorites, even short priced favorites, is not really where we want to be. It's so hard to win long term in baseball betting favorites. Fortunately, it's rare for us to be on all favs on any given day. It just works out that way today. The pitching match up certainly favors the Padres here with Peavy over Rasner but we can't ignore the Yankees streak and the Padres poor play overall, especially away from home where they are just 11-23. The Yankees on the other hand have won 10 of 13 outscoring their opponents 35-6 during the 5 game winning streak. The bats in the Bronx haven woken up. Pitching is the Yankees problem, but you knew this lineup would explode sooner or later. Now, in the blink of an eye, they are 5.5 games back and right where many figured they would be. With the Yankees playing so well right now, we want a piece of the action anytime the price is reasonable, so we'll ride em today despite the unfavorable matchup on the mound.

Cardinals -124 over Royals - Not exactly a pitchers duel here and with no great edge either way on the mound, we're simply looking for the better all around team to bounce back from a one run loss last night and take the 2nd game of this series. This is 2nd worst in the AL against 2nd best in the NL. We ought to be able to get a win here and the price is reasonable.

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Marlins +100 over Mariners - Hopefully this isn't the "one too many" pick for the day as it's a late addition we weren't initially going to play. The Mariners snapped an 8 game home losing streak last night but still own the worst record in the Majors and send a guy to the hill today (Dickey) that's 10-16 with a 6.46 ERA in 35 career starts. We're still playing the long term percentages here folks, which is what qualifies this game as a play. At even money, if the Marlins and Mariners were to play this game 1000 times, even if the Marlins won just one more game than the Mariners, you would show a profit. That is our goal, long term profit, so with that in mind, we have the right side in this one.

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