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Baseball Value - Twins over Padres

6/26

In our daily baseball write ups we mention over and over again the word value. We also mention the words long term over and over. The three key words here are long term value. Long term value, simply, is what successful sports betting is all about. That includes all sports. That includes anything you can place a wager on. Be it a sporting event or a race between two ants.

Most bettors can't grasp the concept. They want to win NOW. Instant gratification. They look at the board and see a -200 favorite and they are all over it. They know that bet will win more times than it loses. But what they don't grasp, is that the bet won't win enough to cover the high price they are laying. Put another way, that -200 play may win today, and even tomorrow. But it won't make you money over the long run. On the flip side, that +140 underdog on the board may lose today. It may lose tomorrow. But if you know how to spot value, and your handicapping is correct, you will grind out a long term profit. It's a concept you need to grasp if there's any chance in becoming a successful bettor.

With that in mind, we have one play to pass along for Thursday.

Twins +100 over Padres - We used the Twins last night as a Premium Play and will ride them once again today. The Twins are on fire. They have won 8 in a row and 11 of their last 13 games outscoring their opponents by a whopping 52-16! The Padres are just the opposite. They have lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 10. They send rookie pitcher Josh Banks to the hill who has been playing well, but the key word here is rookie. He faces Scott Baker who has been sharp as well. Baker has an ERA of  2.63 over his last 4 starts. This play is simply a matter of price. Under these circumstances, a red hot twins team facing an ice cold Padres team and a rookie pitcher, if they were to play 1000 times, the Twins are going to win more than 50% of the time. We get them at even money here today so this is a long term winner, which is what we look to play in baseball. Twins +100

 

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