BELMONT STAKES ANALYSIS - SELECTIONS
6/7/08
By Valerie Grash
While admiring Big Brown’s
accomplishments thus far—in spite of his repugnant
connections—I just can’t concede the Triple Crown to
him. Frankly, this 12-furlong test is a whole lot
tougher than his connections may acknowledge
publically, and Dutrow’s persistent crowing and
dismissive attitude towards his competitors rings
awful hollow, especially in regards to his own
horse’s hoof problems. If Big Brown wins the
Belmont, and thus the Triple Crown, I will salute
him, although as a live-long fan of horse racing I
will never believe he belongs in the same breath as
Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Citation,
Assault, Count Fleet, Whirlaway, War Admiral, Omaha,
Gallant Fox and Sir Barton—especially if he heads
directly off to the breeding shed. However, if he
continues to race this year—against Curlin—and
through the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I may waver a
bit.
Regardless, as a bettor, I’m not interested in
chalky payoffs, so I’m looking for real alternatives
to Big Brown in Saturday’s Belmont. The likely
second favorite will be Casino Drive, and rightly
so. As a half-brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil
and a three-quarter brother to 2007 Belmont winner
Rags to Riches, Casino Drive has the proven breeding
through his dam Better Than Honour. He’s already won
over the Belmont track, and I like Edgar Prado up.
If anyone can spoil a Triple Crown, it’s Prado (just
ask War Emblem and Smarty Jones). I’ll include
Casino Drive in all my exotics and for a straight
win bet.
Icabad Crane drew a terrible post position (10), but
will do his best running late. If Jeremy Rose can
keep him within striking distance early on, he may
get some money, but I think the Preakness was really
his best chance. Still, I will cover him in my
exotics. I also think Macho Again will bounce from
his Preakness effort—he’s just not that
well-conditioned or bred to run another (even
longer) route so soon. I’ll pass on him this time
around.
The maiden entry Guadalcanal is surprising, but
hardly fear-inspiring—his trainer/owner Fred Seitz
may believe this colt wants 12 furlongs, but not
against this bunch. Nick Zito’s duo Da’ Tara and
Anak Nakal are complete toss-outs, as far as I’m
concerned. Likely early speed horse Da’ Tara lost to
his stablemate in his maiden effort at Belmont, was
a complete non-factor in the G1 Florida Derby, and
couldn’t beat Macho Again (and three others) in the
Derby Trial. For this race, conditioning is
everything and Anak Nakal hasn’t posted a workout
over four furlongs since late March; other than his
one-turn maiden victory at Belmont, he hasn’t worked
over this track (Zito has kept him at Saratoga) and
since his win in G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at
Churchill last November, he hasn’t finished in the
money this year in four tries. Despite his
third-place finish in the G2 Peter Pan at Belmont, I
would be surprised if Ready’s Echo finished in the
top three—but may cover him in the exotics just to
be sure.
Two far more likely contenders to flesh out the
exotics are Kentucky Derby third (Denis of Cork) and
fourth (Tale of Ekati) place finishers, both who
come in better rested, having missed the Preakness.
Denis of Cork’s connections (specifically his
owners) have jerked him around this campaign,
leaving him, I fear, ill-prepared to win this
race—although a place in the exotics would not
surprise. I do like the jockey change to Robby
Albarado, who also rode him to victory in the G3
Southwest in February. I’m really counting on Tale
of Ekati to finally live up to expectations. He has
the home court advantage, having won 2 of 2 races at
Belmont, and his curmudgeon trainer Barclay Tagg
bitches just a little too much about his workouts,
almost like he doesn’t want to curse his chances.
Still, notice that two of those posted workouts were
six furlongs, including a very impressive 1:12 over
a muddy Belmont track. That, along with his previous
experience over the quagmire that was Monmouth on
Breeders’ Cup day, could serve him well if a deluge
lets loose before post time. Icabad Crane won his
maiden over a muddy Aqueduct, and Denis of Cork won
over a sloppy Fair Grounds surface—interesting
tidbits to keep in mind.
Depending on post time odds, I’ll key Casino Drive
and Tale of Ekati over Big Brown and Icabad Crane,
with Denis of Cork and Ready’s Echo thrown in for
good measure. Good luck!