CARDS HOST CUBS

7/4/08

We got almost exactly what we expected last night in the Yankee/Bosox game. Pettitte got shelled but unfortunately, the Yanks never got to Lester. We actually used the Bosox and Over as Premium plays last night ending up with a split and enough profit to buy about 2 gallons of gas. We mentioned yesterday that the dog in the series is always worth a look. Beckett against Rasner might appear to be a mismatch, but there's really no such thing as a mismatch when these two hook up. Rasner has been banged around a bit, but he is 3-1 at home this year with a 2.08 era.

Another "division home dog" today is the Cards. At first glance the Cubs would seem to have the pitching edge with Zambrano over Looper but we catch Zambrano coming off the DL and there are legitimate question marks. Before going on the DL he was 0-3 his last 3 starts with an era of 5.75. So, maybe we catch a rusty Zambrano. Or, even better, perhaps there's more to the shoulder injury than we know. The Cubs have won just two of their last 10 road games but have had the Cards number in general, going 11-5 against the Cards their last 16 games.

The above two games stand out as the most interesting today. Games involving teams that figure to factor into the big picture at some point. You could probably throw the Mets/Phillies game into the mix as well. I've mentioned numerous times on these pages that I feel a run is coming with the Mets. I have a hunch it will be the exact opposite from last year. Last year, the Mets had a historical collapse down the stretch. I have a feeling the Mets will play their best baseball of the season, down the stretch this year. We shall see. In the meantime, they aren't worth backing as favorites regardless of who is on the hill.

Happy 4th of July to everyone. Good Luck!

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