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5/16 Update to article written below :

Judging from all of the various online polls, it looks like our play below, taking a shot on Jordin Sparks to get the boot, will be a loser. Just about all of the polls have Blake Lewis getting beat out. Some have it close, such as Dial Idol. However many of the smaller polls have the gap much wider. These various polls are not an exact science but they are a fairly accuarate sampling of the general vote.

We took a shot because of the high price as their was certainly no value in playing Lewis at -300. But it looks like it will be Doolittle vs Sparks in the finale which could actually be very interesting as Dollittle is by far the better singer yet Sparks has this incredible popularity......tune in next week.

 

American Idol - Final Three Predictions

5/14/07

With any betting proposition, you let the odds determine your wagers. In other words, you don't simply pick who you think is going to win a specific event, and then blindly bet on it. You need to achieve value on your wagers. Otherwise, you simply don't bet. As in the case of American Idol, if the contestant you think is going to win, or is going to be eliminated this week, is a prohibitive favorite, then there's not much value in making the wager.

There looks to be some value on the board this week and here's why.

The odds on who will be eliminated next are -

Blake Lewis -300

Dooliittle  +235

Sparks +750

In my opinion, the numbers are way off.

Let's start with the various polls out on the net of which there are many. The most popular and well known poll is Dial Idol. We've mentioned the site before. Their accuracy has been spectacular over the years. Last week, Dial Idol, as well as OTHER popular poll sites had Blake Lewis as the number one vote getter of all the contestants. The previous week, Dial Idol had Lewis at number two. Point being, the support for Blake Lewis is there. It has been all season, and continues to be there as other contestants are voted off and THEIR votes end up going to Lewis.

Votefortheworst.com is another Idol site that has a HUGE following and has been influential in the voting in the past. Their gig is, they ask their visitors to vote for who they feel is the worst contestant. Kind of a spoof on the whole American Idol show in general. Guess who they have now given their support to? That's right, Blake Lewis.

You must also account for vote splitting. There is a certain percentage of the voting pool that will vote for a male or female no matter what. That helps Lewis, being the only male left. He'll pick up all the votes that were previously going to other male contestants. At the same time, the male/female deal will hurt the two remaining female contestants as they will be splitting the vote that previously went to other female contestants.

This wager is being made BEFORE they perform this week. So you also have to ask yourself which of the contestants are more likely to have a HUGE week where they really blow away the judges, the studio audience and the public in general?

I think Lewis is probably the most likely to give a knock out performance. The kid is not just a singer. He's an entertainer. The other two have proven they can sing. In the case of Jordan Sparks, yeah, she can sing. But there is zero entertainment value there. All she has done is sing ballads and carry a good tune. When she's been asked to step it up and do something a little different, such as sing a Bon Jovi tune, she's bombed. Melinda Doolittle has performed much better when out of her element.

Plus, a male vs. female finale show holds more excitement than a female vs. female finale.

Blake Lewis is talented. He has the benefit of being the only male remaining. He has been on top of the dial idol and various other polls. He has the support of vote for the worst. The odds are simply out of whack on this one. There are various ways you can play this. For simplicity sake here on the site, we'll play it like this -

1/2 unit on Sparks to be eliminated at +850

1 unit on Doolittle to be eliminated at +235.

So for the $100 bettor -

50 to win 425 on Sparks to be eliminated

100 to win 235 on Doolittle to be eliminated

So long as Blake Lewis does NOT get eliminated this week, you lock in a guaranteed profit.

As far as the overall winner of the contest, I don't think it's Jordan Sparks. I think it's still likely to be Melinda Doolittle. She has been the most consistent throughout the entire contest. She is +245 to win the whole thing the 2nd betting choice to Sparks who is the -200 favorite.

 

 

 

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