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AMERICAN IDOL FINALE - 2007
UPDATE 5/23 - Very little doubt in tonight's outcome. Jordin Sparks is the winner. The major, reliable polls are not even close. So, no chance to even hedge off the original wager without laying a fortune. So our below wager, is a loser.
However, if you find any sportsbooks, friends, etc. willing to accept a wager on tonight's outcome, go ahead and take Jordin Sparks. It's a "lock" in a business (sports betting) where there generally is no such thing.
So what happened? I imagine that Jordin Sparks picked up the votes that were previously going to Melinda Doolittle. That more than likely put her way over the top. However the comments of the judges certainly didn't help. It was pretty clear that they had a preference towards Sparks and wanted to insure her victory and leave no doubt. Such is the risk when wagering on reality TV. It can be profitable, but it can also backfire.
You have two choices for betting the American Idol finale. Well, actually three. You can bet BEFORE the performances tonight. You can bet AFTER the performances tonight. Or you can bet both before and after.
Current prices are Blake Lewis +325 and Jordin Sparks -425.
Based on all of the voting and polls to date, my guess going in is that Jordin Sparks has an edge in the overall popularity. She is, after all, a better "singer" and American Idol is supposed to be a "singing competition". On the other hand, Blake Lewis is by far the better entertainer, and in my opinion has a better chance of giving a knock out performance when it really counts.
So the real question is, is Jordin Sparks -425 a fair, accurate price? Is she that much better and does she figure to win by a 4-1 margin of votes? I say no way.
I think you'll see a fairly close vote, certainly closer than the current price indicates. In that case, the current prices you see out there on Blake Lewis are probably the best you'll see from here forward. The books take these odds off the board prior to the performances tonight, and then re-post the adjusted line afterwards. Generally the next day.
So my strategy for betting this thing will be as follows.
Take Blake Lewis now, at the current price of +325 or better.
Once the show is over and the odds are reposted you're likely to see much lower odds posted, unless this kid is totally blown off the stage tonight. This will present you with a few options on Wednesday.
1) You can scalp by playing Jordin Sparks Wednesday at lower than -325, and lock in a small guaranteed profit.
2) You can sit with your original wager on Blake Lewis and go for the nice score
3) You can buy back only a portion on Jordin Sparks and leave it heavy on Blake Lewis
4) You can buy back more on Jordin Sparks and leave your wager on heavy on her
We will be back on this page Wednesday with updates as to what the right move will be. Before show time on Wednesday, we'll have a very good idea as to who the actual winner is. So check back for that. If you don't want the risk involved with the above strategy, simply wait until we come back on Wednesday with our final prediction.