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Texas Rangers
Undervalued by Oddsmakers
7/1/08
I mentioned this the other day but it's worth mentioning again.
We're seeing a return to mediocrity across the majors by some of the
teams tagged as big time contenders just a couple of weeks ago. It's
important to take a glance at the Major League Baseball standings,
specifically, the winning percentages, as an illustration as to why
you shouldn't bet favorites higher than -130 or so and why you
should concentrate on underdogs. You have a handful of teams around
60% or close to it. The Rays and Bosox in the AL East. The Angels
and then one NL team, the Cubs.
The mighty Yankees are 5 games over .500 at 53%. The Red Hot
Tigers are at 51%. One of the NL's best offensive teams to date, the
Phillies, are dropping quickly and sit at 53%. Mater of fact, the
entire NL East is up from grabs in a sea of mediocrity with the
Phillies, Mets, Marlins and Braves all between 40 and 44 wins on the
year.
How about the NL West? Not one team is above 50%. The Division
leading D-Backs are one game over .500 at 42-41 for 50.6%. I bring
this up to get you to broaden your outlook when you look at a days
MLB card and try to ferret out a few plays. Dig a little deeper into
the days games and look for other handicapping factors such as how a
team does against Righties or Lefties. How a team does in day games
vs night games and how a team does home and away.
For example, the Texas Rangers are a .500 baseball team this
year, but one of the biggest money makers from a betting standpoint
in many categories. If you bet on the Rangers strictly when they
face a right handed pitcher for example, you'd be up 16 units this
year. Likewise, if you bet the Rangers in all their road games, this
mediocre team with a road record of 22-23 put close to 7 units
profit in your pocket. For that matter, if you just bet blindly on
the Rangers in EVERY game this year you'd be up 10 units. They are
only 2 games over .500, but the Rangers have been undervalued by the
oddsmakers all year long. Remember that before you lay -200 tonight
with Chamberlin and the Yankees.
Todays Free Play comes courtesy of Bob Harvey Sports.
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston
Astros (MLB) - Jul 1, 2008 8:05 PM EDT |
|
| Play:
Total: 9/-130 Under
Play Title: Tuesday MLB Dodgers vs. Astros |
| Lance Berkman hit his 22nd home run to back
six innings of one-run ball from Roy Oswalt as the Astros
downed the Dodgers 4-1 in the first-of-four at Minute Maid
Park. Oswalt stuck out nine and didn't walk a batter en
route to his seventh win of the season. Jose Valverde
pitched the ninth for his 22nd save. Mark Lorett had an RBI
single and Brad Ausmus singled in two for Houston, which has
won three in a row. Eric Stults gave up all four runs in
five-and-a-third frames to suffer his first loss in three
decisions. James Loney's sac-fly in the first inning was all
the offense for Los Angeles. The Dodgers have lost their
last two games. |
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