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Packets at Cowboys

11/29/2007

Packers at Cowboys - What's not to like about this match up? Truthfully folks, the NFL product these days just ain't what it used to be. I don't know if it's just me, or if others who have watched the NFL over the last 30 years feel the same way. It's a watered down product, with very few regular season games that you really even care to watch. Each week I look at the card and look for games that grab my interest from a football fan standpoint. I'm lucky to find one each week. The DIRECTV NFL Sunday ticket is a waste. You basically have a bunch of games each week between .500 or worse ball clubs. Find me a game on this weeks card that stands out as a good football game between two solid football teams. Maybe Jags/Colts. That's about it though.

Which brings me to Thursdays game between the Pack and the Cowboys. Now this is a treat for an NFL fan. Two teams at 10-1. Playoff teams. Fighting for home field advantage. Perhaps a preview of the NFC title game. Brett Favre. Tony Romo. Unfortunately most of the football fans out there won't even get to see the game as it's on the NFL Network which most cable providers don't even carry!!!!

Hard to find much fault in two 10-1 teams. The Packers are 5-0 on the road. The Cowboys are 5-1 at home. Romo having a great year. Favre having a great year. Both teams +5 or 6 in turnovers for the year. Both teams with similar positive yards per point numbers. Both teams have beaten some of the same, good teams. Combined, the two teams are on a 17-4 against the spread run.

The edge in this game is in the running game and the edge goes to the Cowboys. Dallas has the better running game and they have the better defense against the run. With the passing game being about even, the better rushing game combined with playing at home should translate into a Cowboy win here. The question is, will it be by more than 7?

In Dallas' 10 wins, all but one were by more than 7 points and that was the Redskin game in which Washington snuck in the back door. But Green Bay has only lost once and that loss was by a TD to the Bears in a game they led at the half but let turnovers get the best of them in the 2nd half and allowing the Bears to come back and win.

Want some interesting tid bits on the game?

The Packers have won 14 of their last 15 games dating back to last season

The Packers are off to their best start since 1962

Favre has never won in Dallas (0-5)

The Packers have lost 8 straight and 11 of 12 against the Cowboys

Bottom line? The edge in the rushing game on both sides of the ball should be enough for the Cowboys to win this one. Our numbers agree with that, but suggest that the Cowboys may not get the job done by enough to cover the touchdown. With a game of this magnitude between two very good football teams and with all that's on the line here, we have to think this game is up for grabs in the 4th quarter. With Favre behind center in a game that's up for grabs in the 4th quarter, we'll take our chances. Our numbers also suggest this game to go under the total. So.....drum roll please..........

5* PACKERS +7

3* DAL/GB UNDER 51.5

 

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