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Here's another playoff game where our numbers point us one way, yet we are going the other way. Even putting more emphasis on the Colts two playoff wins, we still make the Patriots a favorite in this game. Yet you're getting anywhere from +3 even money to +3.5 in one or two spots. You're getting points with a team that our numbers tell us should be favored, and would seem to have several other edges. Brady has Mannings number. Belichick has Dungys number. The Patriot defense is better than that of the Colts. Yet, we are going the other way. Perhaps we need our heads examined?
As we have brought up al through these playoffs, No one has been able to put the Colts away this year with the exception of the game they didn't show up at against the Jags. Their other 3 losses all came in the final seconds of the game.
There's little doubt that at some point late in the 4th quarter of Sundays game, Manning will have the ball with a chance to win the game. We simply like our chances if that occurs. You have the home field dome working for you. You have an 8-0 record at home working for you. The Colts defense has been playing way above the level they played at all year. As we also have mentioned before, it's rare in professional sports for a team to get these opportunities where they have come up short previously. But yet here are the Colts with yet another chance to make it to the Super Bowl. Eventually they have to break that door down and they may not get another chance for a long time to come with all the free agents on this team. So this is it. This is their shot.
We just feel Manning will come up big and finally get over the hump.
It will be close, no doubt. For that reason, we're playing the moneyline. Just a small play.
Our Pick - Colts -160 over Patriots (2*)