Top Sportsbooks
Reduced Juice wagering only at 5Dimes - A Top Rated Bettorsworld Recommended Sportsbook - Click Here to sign up! |
Pinnacle Pulse
3/30/06
The clock hasn't struck midnight yet on the greatest Cinderella story in the
history of college hoops as George Mason has danced all the way to the Final
Four beating three of the past six national champions in the process. While over
50 Pinnacle Sports customers stand to hit it big if the Patriots win the
National championship, only a handful had the foresight to back George Mason at
400/1 before the tournament started.
Although these few players will reap a handsome return on a minimal investment
if GMU go all the way, for the rest of us there is some consolation in knowing
that they probably would have received a higher payoff with a simple win parlay
on George Mason.
When books deal futures markets, they try to maintain a semblance of balanced
action and attempt to limit liability on the worst case scenario. Due to a large
number of bettors playing long shots, this can often lead to grossly depressed
prices on underdogs. On the other hand, this may lead to solid value on the
favorites.
At Pinnacle Sports Betting, futures markets are normally priced between 110% and
135% depending upon the size of the field. This compares to futures markets of
greater than 200% at most traditional sports books. Even though this represents
excellent value on our future markets, often even these margins won't properly
reward long shot players.
Therefore, a good strategy when betting tournament futures is to estimate the
moneyline quote of a team you like in each round. After estimating the prices
for your selection to win through, you will be able to work out the estimated
parlay price. Then simply compare the projected price for your parlay to the
odds on the futures market and you'll find whether the future or a win parlay
would give you the best possible return on your investment.
George Mason opened the tournament at +200 on the moneyline versus Michigan
State in the first round. The Patriots were then listed at +240 at Pinnacle
Sports Book versus last year's national champion North Carolina in the second
round. In the Sweet 16, GMU was a -135 moneyline favorite over Wichita State
before entering the Elite Eight at +400 versus #1 seed Connecticut.
Despite defeating three contenders in the Washington D.C. regional, George Mason
enters Saturday's Final Four match-up versus Florida at +233 on the moneyline.
Should the Patriots continue this remarkable run, they'll likely be listed at a
similar price in the national championship game.
To calculate your parlay you first need to work out the decimal value for each
moneyline quote. If the quote is positive '+' simply divide the moneyline by 100
and add 1. For example, if the moneyline is +200 the decimal quote is (200/100)
+ 1 = 2.00 + 1 = 3.00
If the moneyline quote is negative '-' simply add 100 to the moneyline quote and
divide by the original moneyline quote. For example, if the moneyline is -135
the decimal quote is (235/135) = 1.7407
You then multiply all of the decimal quotes by each other and subtract 1 from
the answer you get. As there are no set payoffs for tying a number of teams
together in parlays for baseball, you can use this same simple formula to work
out your baseball parlays as well.
By way of example, a simple win parlay on George Mason in each game would be
calculated as follows;
3.00 * 3.40 * 1.7407 * 5.00 * 3.33 * 3.33 = 984.4248 = c. 983/1
By simply parlaying the moneyline quotes using a calculator, you'll find that
your George Mason parlay will pay more than twice the available future odds on
the team at the start of the tournament. While it seems from the above example
that futures bettors on GMU are shortchanged, this is typical of long shots in
any futures market.
When a bettor holds a 'live' futures ticket worth a large payout, the player may want to hedge out of their position during the later stages of a tournament by placing a large wager on an opponent. While hedging out of a position is a way to lock in a profit, keep in mind that any hedge will result in laying additional vigorish, the bookmaker's cut for taking your bet. This can be mitigated somewhat by playing at a low vig sports book like Pinnacle Sportsbetting which offers bettors up to 50% better value than traditional sports books. In general though, this is another potential benefit of playing a win parlay versus a future.
With a win parlay, bettors can simply pocket some winnings from previous rounds
and lay less on the team in an upcoming game instead of spending extra juice to
hedge out of their locked position. Of course the win parlay doesn't sound as
glamorous as the 400/1 ticket, but at least the bettor will be getting the best
available odds on their long shot.
With George Mason's Final Four run capturing the imagination of fans and bettors
everywhere, we'll take an in-depth look at the early betting action on
Saturday's national semi-final games as the tournament reaches its climax.
George Mason (+6 -104) vs. Florida
If there were any doubts regarding George Mason's ability to go all the way they
were crushed in Sunday's win over pre-tournament favorites UConn. The Patriots
overcame their deficiencies with tenacity and a lot of heart. They were never
rattled, even when they trailed by 12 late in the first half and again following
the Huskies buzzer-beating lay up to force OT. Away from the partisan crowd they
enjoyed in DC, they'll need another flawless performance to get past the Gators
in the Final Four.
Florida is hot right now belying their #3 seed and pre-tournament odds of 26/1
to win it all. Florida's man-to-man coverage is as tight as UConn's and they've
also demonstrated the ability to pressure and show zone, which could cause
problems for the Patriots who haven't shown strong dribble penetration so far in
the tourney.
We opened betting on the game before the conclusion of the Florida/Villanova
game on Sunday with George Mason as a +4.5 underdog. Since then we've seen
strong, steady favorite money that pushed the line out as far as +6.5 where we
began to receive some buyback with the line now settling at GMU +6 (-104). The
majority of our wise guys have yet to show a clear opinion on the game.
LSU (-2 -110) vs. UCLA
UCLA's tough defense doesn't give up cheap points. Their success this season has
been based on their defensive backbone, but they'll need to improve their
shooting against the Tigers if they want to get back to the National
Championship game for the first time since winning it all in 1995.
LSU's ability to weather a defensive struggle should serve the Tigers well
against the Bruins. A 75/1 outsider before the tournament, LSU have destroyed
two of the nation's elite programs with their crippling interior defense as the
Tigers rank No.7 in the nation in defensive rebounding.
We initially opened the game with UCLA as a -1.5 favorite over LSU but the money
has been strong and steady on the Tigers. The line moved through the zero all
the way to LSU -1 before we began to see any Bruins' backers. In our highest
grossing game of the Final Four, we continue to see LSU money pushing the game
to a strong 2. Again like the GMU/Florida game, the sharps have yet to show
their hand but we expect a wave of UCLA money closer to game time if the
tournament betting trends continue.